πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • Gold XAUUSD: $4,412.67 (Day High $4,424.04 / Day Low $4,362.58), +1.02%
  • WTI Crude USOIL: $82.20 (Day High $83.09 / Day Low $81.35), -0.02%

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

  1. Former Premier Zhu Rongji Passes Away β€” The CPC Central Committee, NPC Standing Committee, State Council, and CPPCC jointly announced the passing of Comrade Zhu Rongji, former Premier of China.

  2. PBoC Releases Q2 2026 Monetary Policy Report β€” The People’s Bank of China will continue its moderately loose monetary policy and plans to introduce incremental measures to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments. Key measures include: continuing the stock buyback lending program, building the “tech board” of the bond market, and increasing credit support for private enterprises. The PBoC noted that M2 and social financing growth currently exceed nominal GDP growth, indicating a relatively loose monetary environment.

  3. US-Iran Ceasefire Outlook Uncertain β€” A senior Iranian source stated there are no discussions about extending the ceasefire with the US, and the ceasefire agreement has no effective date. Pakistan indicated the deadline for the US-Iran memorandum of understanding could be extended, but the broader peace process has stalled.

  4. Hormuz Strait Closure Risk Persists β€” UK Treasury officials predict that if the Hormuz Strait remains closed, UK GDP growth in 2027 could be as low as 0.3% in the worst-case scenario.

  5. US July CPI Data Due Tonight β€” Swap markets are pricing over 50% probability of a Fed rate hike in September. PIMCO argues rates will inevitably fall, while Metzler Bank contends the data will have limited impact on the Fed’s September decision.

  6. Analysts Raise SMCI Price Targets β€” Barclays raised Super Micro Computer’s target from $38 to $39, and Citi raised it from $33 to $39.

  7. Kyiv Under Drone Attack Again β€” Explosions were heard again in Kyiv, Ukraine, as drones are attacking the city.

🧭 Market Assessment

Gold continues to strengthen toward $4,412, with geopolitical risk premiums sustaining safe-haven demand.

The US-Iran ceasefire outlook remains uncertain, and the Hormuz Strait closure risk continues to escalate β€” Middle East tensions remain the market’s biggest uncertainty.

The PBoC’s Q2 monetary policy report signals continued easing, with incremental policies expected β€” broadly positive for A-share sentiment.

Tonight’s US CPI is the key data point this week. Market divergence on the Fed’s September path is significant, and volatility may rise.

Crude oil prices are trading in a narrow range, with geopolitical risks and demand outlooks pulling in opposite directions β€” awaiting CPI guidance.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • Tonight 20:30 CST β€” US July CPI data (the most important data release this week, directly impacting Fed September rate decision expectations)