π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-12 15:00 CST
Fed's Collins turns hawkish, open to September rate hike if inflation persists; market eyes July CPI; API crude stocks surge 9.07M barrels vs expected draw, pressuring oil; Houthi attack on commercial vessel kills 3 Pakistani crew members; Black Sea port of Novorossiysk hit.
π Market Snapshot
- π₯ Gold (XAUUSD): $4,405.13/oz (session high $4,415.92 / low $4,362.58)
- π’οΈ WTI Crude (USOIL): $82.617/bbl (session high $83.092 / low $82.224)
- π₯ Spot silver up over 2% to $65.97/oz; COMEX silver above $66
- π―π΅ Nikkei 225 closed +0.83% at 67,524; KOSPI closed +3.68% at 6,579 (Samsung +6.7%)
- π¦πΊ ASX 200 closed -0.45% at 9,208
- π¨π³ Shanghai/Shenzhen turnover exceeded 2 trillion yuan for 7th consecutive session
- π―π΅ Japan 40-year JGB yield up 4.5bp to 4.055%
π₯ Key News This Hour
1. Fed Officials Turn Hawkish Ahead of CPI
Boston Fed President Collins explicitly stated she would support a September rate hike if data shows inflation hasn’t eased. She previously backed holding rates steady in July, marking a notable hawkish shift. Goolsbee emphasized inflation remains the economy’s biggest challenge. WSJ’s Nick Timiraos flagged that markets will focus on July CPI month-over-month change. The CPI print is the key variable for rate hike expectations.
2. API Crude Stocks Surge 9.07M Barrels
US API crude inventories rose by 9.072 million barrels last week, against expectations of a 0.5M barrel draw. The massive build severely diverges from forecasts, pressuring crude prices.
3. Red Sea Escalation: Houthi Attack Kills Crew Members
Houthi forces attacked a commercial vessel, killing three Pakistani crew members. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry strongly condemned the attack, calling it a serious threat to Red Sea navigation freedom and maritime security. Pakistan’s FM traveled to Tehran to push for direct and indirect US-Iran diplomatic channels.
4. Black Sea and Libya Oil Supply Disruptions
Russia’s Novorossiysk port was attacked, damaging grain terminal operations. A refinery in western Libya was hit by drones again. Meanwhile, VP Vance pressured Ukraine to halt attacks on Russian port oil tankers. Global oil markets face multi-front supply risks, though EIA assesses the Mandeb Strait threat hasn’t yet impacted Saudi production.
5. Foxconn Q2 Profit Beats 35%, AI Demand Strong
Foxconn reported Q2 net profit of TWD 59.97 billion (market estimate TWD 58.8B), up 35% YoY. The company expects strong Q3 revenue growth, with AI server shipments projected to see high-teens sequential growth. AI infrastructure is driving growth momentum. Positive outlook for next year.
6. Norway Sovereign Wealth Fund Earns NOK 1.753 Trillion in H1
Norway’s Government Pension Fund outperformed its benchmark by 0.22 percentage points in H1, with Q2 equity returns of 16%. Fund value reached NOK 22.683 trillion at end of H1, with NOK 89 billion in inflows. Strong equity returns, particularly from Asian tech stocks, drove performance.
π§ Market Assessment
Fed officials are delivering a coordinated hawkish message ahead of the CPI print β Collins shifting from July’s neutral stance to openly supporting a potential September hike signals that marginal changes in inflation data will directly drive rate expectations.
Crude markets face a contradictory setup: the bearish 9M-barrel API build pressures prices, while multi-front supply disruptions across the Black Sea, Libya, and the Red Sea provide geopolitical premium support.
Precious metals show divergence β silver up 2% while gold remains pressured, with the gold-silver ratio continuing to compress, reflecting the split between industrial demand drivers and safe-haven flows.
Middle East tensions continue to escalate β Pakistan’s FM in Tehran for US-Iran mediation, Houthi attacks causing casualties, and Red Sea shipping risks rising. Black Sea grain shipments disrupted by port attacks add to global supply chain stress.
Foxconn earnings validate continued AI supply chain acceleration with an optimistic Q3 outlook and high-double-digit AI server shipment growth, a positive catalyst for tech hardware supply chains.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- πΊπΈ US July CPI (expected soon) β The week’s most critical data point, directly impacting September rate hike expectations. Market expects mild YoY cooling; MoM change is the focus
- πΊπΈ EIA Crude Inventories (Today 22:30 CST) β Following the massive 9.07M-barrel API build, EIA data will confirm crude supply trends