📰 Morning Briefing (00:00-08:00) | 2026-08-12

📰 Morning Briefing (00:00-08:00) | 2026-08-12

📊 Market Snapshot

• Gold trading in a narrow range near 4368 after meeting resistance at 4400, awaiting CPI for directional confirmation
• Crude oil slightly lower after Pakistan signaled a “US-Iran deal approaching,” which erased intraday gains; API inventory build of 9.07M barrels adds bearish pressure
• SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased 1.7t to 1022.7t; iShares Silver ETF holdings increased 106.8t — institutions continue accumulating precious metals

🔥 Key Overnight News

1. CoreWeave Q2 Revenue Doubles, Stock Up 12% After Hours AI compute leader CoreWeave (CRWV) reported Q2 revenue of $2.58B (+112% YoY), beating estimates of $2.56B; net loss of $626M better than expected $757M. Backlog reached $104B. Raised 2026 full-year revenue guidance to $12.4-13.2B, year-end compute capacity to exceed 1.85GW. 2026 capex projected at $35-39B.

2. API Crude Inventories Unexpectedly Surge 9.07M Barrels For the week ending Aug 7, API crude stocks rose 9.072M barrels vs an expected draw of 0.5M and prior build of 2.69M. Cushing +1.57M, gasoline -1.53M, distillates -0.596M. Build far exceeded expectations — bearish for oil near-term.

3. Fed September Rate Hike Probability at 48% CME FedWatch: 52% probability of holding rates steady in September, 48% for a 25bp hike. October hold probability 38.7%. Former NY Fed President Dudley criticized Wash’s policy confusion, warning that the Fed “copying answers from the market” would trigger a credibility collapse.

4. Houthi First Fatal Attack on Saudi Vessel Kills 3 Crew Members A commercial ship was attacked in the Mandeb Strait resulting in 3 deaths — the first fatality from Houthi ship attacks since the US-Iran conflict. Both critical Middle East waterways (Hormuz + Mandeb) under pressure. Panama Canal congestion also worsening due to route rerouting; one shipowner paid $4M to jump the queue.

5. Trump Considers Capital Gains Tax Cut According to a senior economic advisor, Trump is seeking new policy promises ahead of midterms, including potential capital gains tax cuts and tax exemptions for certain home sales.

6. US Unit Labor Costs Drop to 1.4% Easing wage pressure signals that core inflation may continue to decline, providing room for the Fed to maintain a wait-and-see stance.

7. US Equity Sentiment Flashing Strongest Warning Since 2018 Wells Fargo warns: if CPI exceeds expectations combined with soft employment, stagflation narrative would hit markets. Advises adding hedges before CPI. Retail bearish sentiment at multi-year highs; institutional positioning severely lagging.

8. Japan Manufacturing Sentiment Hits Highest Since March Reuters Tankan: manufacturing sentiment index 13→18, non-manufacturing 25→28. Chip boom driving the improvement.

9. European Stocks Enter Bull Market, Capital Returns En Masse Strong earnings + clear central bank policy path + valuation appeal driving global funds back to Europe despite Iran conflict concerns.

10. CME to Launch Compute Futures in October CME Group partnering with Silicon Data to launch compute (AI算力) futures on October 5, marking AI compute infrastructure’s formal entry into commodity-style pricing.

🧭 Assessment

Geopolitical risk remains elevated — the Houthi first fatal attack in the Mandeb Strait means Middle East shipping risk premiums are unlikely to compress in the near term.

US-Iran game enters a delicate phase — Pakistan’s claim of a “deal approaching” pulled oil lower, but Trump’s “powerful force” rhetoric and the Air Force One security incident reveal escalating covert conflict.

AI compute arms race accelerating — CoreWeave’s doubling revenue, $100B+ backlog, and CME’s compute futures launch validate the commercialization of AI infrastructure investment.

US equity sentiment showing dangerous signals — Wells Fargo’s 2018-level bearish sentiment warning, severe retail-institutional divergence, and market fragility rising ahead of CPI.

Crude oil faces multiple near-term headwinds — large API inventory build plus US-Iran de-escalation signals, though geopolitical tail risk could reverse at any time.

Gold’s short-term direction awaits CPI validation — pulled back from 4400 resistance, but continued ETF accumulation shows institutional medium-to-long-term allocation logic remains intact with structural support solid.

📅 Today’s Key Calendar

Note: No major US economic data today, but tomorrow’s (8/13) US CPI is the core risk event of the week — market volatility may begin to price in tonight.