📰 Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-11 17:00 CST

📰 Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-11 17:00 CST

📊 Market Snapshot

• Gold: Hit a two-month high of 4435 intraday before pulling back; profit-taking ahead of Wednesday’s CPI data
• Crude Oil: WTI up over 2%, Brent at $88.48; Ukraine’s strike on Russia’s Orsk refinery lifts geopolitical premium
• US Futures: S&P 500 futures +0.02%, Nasdaq futures +0.17%, Dow futures -0.08%
• Hong Kong Close: HSI down 1.1% at 25,652; Tech Index down 1.93%; non-ferrous metals sector weak throughout
• RMB: Onshore USD/CNY closed at 6.7457, down 15 pips
• European Bonds: French 30Y yield rose to 4.80%, highest since October 2008
• German Power: Baseload electricity prices up 23.6% to €139.4/MWh

🔥 Key News This Hour

1. Fed’s Hammack: Multiple Rate Hikes May Be Needed

Fed official Hammack struck a hawkish tone, saying multiple rate hikes may be necessary to effectively curb inflation. Meanwhile, China’s central bank emphasized improving its monetary policy framework. Goldman Sachs holds the opposite view, expecting no Fed rate hikes this year.

2. Nomura: Japan Intervention May Reach 14.1 Trillion Yen

Nomura Securities estimates Japan’s intervention scale may have exceeded the April-May round. The US Treasury pledged “full support” for Japan’s intervention, but the Fed has not contributed funds, leaving fiscal resources capped. Yen bears are regrouping.

3. Gold Pulls Back from Two-Month High, CPI in Focus

Gold hit $4,435 intraday, a two-month high, before retreating to around $4,369. Market focus shifts to Wednesday’s CPI data — Comerica Bank believes July CPI will carry more weight for the Fed’s next decision than the jobs report, expecting YoY CPI to ease from 3.5%.

4. RBA Holds Rates Steady, As Expected

The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained its cash rate at 4.35%. Commonwealth Bank expects rates to stay on hold for the rest of the year; Capital Economics sees a possible hike, but only under stringent conditions.

5. China NEV Exports Surge 147.8% YoY in July

Passenger car association data shows July NEV exports reached 540,000 units, up 147.8% YoY, accounting for 58.8% of total passenger car exports. Domestic retail penetration hit 65.1%, with domestic brands at 83%.

6. Geopolitical Developments

• Ukraine’s military announced a strike on Russia’s Orsk refinery
• Syrian court sentenced former President Bashar al-Assad to death in absentia
• Gaza war death toll reaches 73,387
• Lebanon: Israeli drone strike on Nabatieh injures two

🧭 Market Assessment

Gold pulled back from its highs as markets turn cautious ahead of CPI data, with profit-taking near the two-month peak.

Crude oil strength was directly driven by Ukraine’s strike on a Russian refinery, lifting the geopolitical risk premium.

The Fed’s internal hawk-dove divide is widening — Hammack talks up multiple hikes while Goldman expects none this year. This divergence itself is a source of market uncertainty.

Japan’s intervention scale keeps growing but the US Treasury’s actual contribution remains limited. Yen bears may return as the US-Japan yield differential remains the core contradiction.

French 30Y yields hit their highest since 2008, reviving concerns about European debt sustainability.

Wednesday’s CPI and Thursday’s PPI are the week’s key variables. Inflation data will determine the Fed’s September path expectations.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

• Today 18:00 — US July NFIB Small Business Confidence Index (prev. 97.4)
• Today 20:15 — US ADP Employment Weekly Change for week of Jul 25 (prev. 15K)
• Today 20:55 — US Redbook Retail Sales YoY for week of Aug 8 (prev. 8.7%)
• Today 22:00 — US July Existing Home Sales Annualized (est. 4.05M, prev. 4.09M)
• Tomorrow — US July CPI data (the week’s most important release, expected to ease from 3.5% YoY)
• Thursday — US PPI data