π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-11 13:00 CST
RBA holds rate at 4.35% for second consecutive meeting, inflation still above target; Iran's president and supreme leader hold marathon talks; Maersk returns to Suez Canal, Red Sea reopening expectations rise.
π Market Snapshot
| Asset | Last | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Gold XAUUSD | 4408.70 | -0.42% |
| WTI Crude USOIL | 81.35 | -0.11% |
Gold pulled back slightly after hitting an intraday high of 4435, holding above the 4400 support. Crude oil traded in a narrow range around $81.
π₯ Key News This Hour
1. RBA Holds Rate at 4.35% for Second Consecutive Meeting
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the benchmark rate at 4.35% as expected. Key policy statement points:
- Inflation remains too high, risks skewed to the upside
- Global oil supply disruptions are directly pushing up inflation
- Middle East conflict impact smaller than expected so far, but uncertainty persists
- Inflation not expected to return to target midpoint until late 2027
- Forecast: 2026 Q4 unemployment at 4.5%, 2027 Q4 at 4.7%
- Decision was unanimous
AUD/USD fell about 20 points to 0.7043 after the announcement.
2. Iran’s President and Supreme Leader Hold Marathon Talks
President Pezeshkian reported a 7-8 hour talk with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, covering all major issues. Pezeshkian emphasized that preventing internal discord is the top priority. Meanwhile, Mojtaba has reshuffled the security team with hardline appointments, signaling a tough stance toward Trump.
3. Maersk Returns to Suez Canal, Red Sea Reopening Expectations Rise
Maerski’s AE19 route suddenly returned to the Suez Canal, raising market expectations for Red Sea route resumption. European container shipping futures plunged over 6%. Brent crude has fallen over 30% from conflict highs, but refined products show divergence, with backlash risk mounting.
4. Trump Administration Secretly Defused Israel-Syria Conflict
Reports indicate the Trump administration brokered a secret nuclear deal between Syria and Israel, with the IAEA to remove residual nuclear material from Syria’s “Site 99,” averting a potential regional conflict.
5. HK Market Midday: Hang Seng Falls 0.63%
The Hang Seng briefly touched 26,000 before retreating to around the 250-day moving average. Innovative pharma extended gains, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped over 1%.
π§ Assessment
The RBA’s hold was expected, but the hawkish language on inflation upside risks is notable. The transmission path of Middle East conflict to global inflation remains a focal point.
Iran’s internal political dynamics warrant attention: the supreme leader’s security team reshuffle with all hardliners, combined with the president’s emphasis on “preventing internal discord,” suggests Tehran is coordinating its stance toward the US.
Maersk’s return to the Suez Canal is a significant Red Sea signal. If the route normalizes, container shipping rates should fall, easing global supply chain inflation pressures.
Tonight’s US data is dense β NFIB small business optimism, ADP employment change, and existing home sales β which will provide new pricing anchors for Fed rate cut expectations.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- 18:00 US July NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (prev. 97.4)
- 20:15 US Weekly ADP Employment Change (prev. +15K)
- 20:55 US Redbook Retail Sales YoY (prev. 8.7%)
- 22:00 US July Existing Home Sales Annualized (est. 4050K, prev. 4090K)