📊 Market Snapshot

  • Gold XAUUSD: $4,355.14 (+0.32% intraday, broke 4360 then pulled back)
  • WTI Crude USOIL: $77.46 (-1.46%, trending lower intraday)
  • A-Shares: Shanghai +0.67% at 3,966.59, Shenzhen +0.04%, ChiNext volatile
  • HK Stocks: Hang Seng Tech up >1% late session, consumer shares strong, Laopu Gold +11%+
  • JGBs: 10Y yields higher, 30Y at 3.98%, market pricing 66% odds of BoJ September hike

🔥 Key News This Hour

1. Iran-Oman Reach Consensus on Hormuz Strait Shipping Route Map

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson made multiple statements: talks with Oman are “constructive and positive,” both sides have reached consensus on a shipping transit roadmap, and technical details are being finalized for a joint statement. However, Iran explicitly stated there are “no direct negotiations with Washington” — only exchanging messages through intermediaries. US Democratic Senator Murphy called the US-Iran deal “bad but must be signed,” saying the US has “effectively lost the war against Iran” and urgently needs to restore Hormuz Strait navigation.

→ Diplomatic window opening for Hormuz Strait navigation crisis, but direct US-Iran dialogue channel remains closed. If shipping restoration expectations intensify, oil prices may face downward pressure.

2. Ukrainian Drone Strike on Russian Petrochemical Hub Kills 12

Russia’s Tatarstan republic city of Nizhnekamsk was hit by large-scale Ukrainian drone strikes targeting industrial and civilian infrastructure, with 12 confirmed deaths. Nizhnekamsk is a major Russian petrochemical base (Tatneft headquarters). Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture warned that autumn grain storage capacity gap may reach 11 million tons, with export disruptions continuing to impact grain supply chains.

→ Russia-Ukraine conflict escalating further, with drone strikes reaching deep into Russian industrial heartland. Energy infrastructure risk premium may rise.

3. Japan September Rate Hike Odds Rise to 66%, JGB Yields Climb

After the BoJ released summary of opinions from its last monetary policy meeting, market bets on a September hike intensified, with probability rising to 66%. Benchmark 10Y JGB yields rose, 30Y hit 3.98%. Meanwhile, yen depreciation dividends are releasing — Toyota and other multinationals raised earnings forecasts. However, July bank loan growth slowed to 5.4% (from 5.7%), and June current account unexpectedly posted a deficit of -¥923B (vs. expected +¥15,120B). Economic data remains mixed.

→ Rising BoJ rate hike expectations are a global liquidity tightening signal, putting pressure on risk asset valuations.

4. South Korea Growth Forecast Upgraded on AI Chip Demand

Institutional survey shows economists now expect South Korea’s 2026 GDP growth at 3.3%, significantly upgraded from July’s estimate, driven by strong global AI chip demand. Semiconductor supply chain momentum continues to be confirmed.

5. Chevrolet Suspends New Car Sales in China

Dealer sources confirmed Chevrolet has suspended new vehicle sales in China. GM China responded that Cadillac and Buick maintain competitive advantages in their respective segments, while Chevrolet’s product line faces strategic realignment.

🧧 Assessment

Gold broke $4,360 intraday before pulling back to ~$4,355. Geopolitical risk premiums (Hormuz Strait diplomatic maneuvering + Russia-Ukraine drone strikes) and safe-haven demand continue to support prices, but a formal Iran-Oman joint statement could trigger profit-taking.

WTI crude fell to $77.46. Expectations of Hormuz Strait navigation restoration are pressuring oil prices, but the Nizhnekamsk petrochemical facility strike is a reminder that geopolitical supply disruption risks persist. Long-short tug-of-war intensifying.

Rising BoJ September hike expectations are a global liquidity variable that demands close monitoring. Higher JGB yields could trigger carry trade unwinding, indirectly pressuring US equity valuations.

A-share volume shrank to ¥2.52 trillion. Shanghai held gains via heavyweights but ChiNext一度 fell over 2.5%. Small metals and livestock sectors led, with market style tilting toward defensive and cyclical rotation while growth sectors remain under pressure.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • Today 16:30 | Eurozone Aug Sentix Investor Confidence (expected -0.5, prior -3.1) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Today 22:00 | US Jul Conference Board Employment Trends Index (prior 106.69) ⭐⭐
  • Today 23:30 | US 3-month/6-month T-bill auctions ⭐
  • Tomorrow 12:30 | RBA Rate Decision (expected 4.35% hold) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Tomorrow 18:00 | US Jul NFIB Small Business Optimism (prior 97.4) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Tomorrow 22:00 | US Jul Existing Home Sales annualized (expected 4.04M, prior 4.09M) ⭐⭐⭐