πŸ“Š Market Overview

  • Gold (XAUUSD): $4,341.11 ↑2.37% | Intraday $4,229.73 - $4,371.77
  • WTI Crude Oil (USOIL): $76.35 ↓1.32% | Intraday $75.68 - $77.87

Friday’s close data; markets closed over the weekend.

πŸ”₯ Key Overnight News

1. US-Iran Conflict Enters “Mid-Game”, Weapon Stockpiles Running Low VP Vance states the US-Iran conflict is in “mid-game,” with Iran informing the US it has no plans to charge Hormuz Strait tolls. However, US naval blockade continues β€” 53 merchant ships intercepted, 2 disabled. Pentagon urgently urges defense contractors to accelerate production; Patriot interceptor stockpile below 1,700, with over 1,500 consumed.

2. CENTCOM Commander Visits Israel, Gaza Withdrawal Plan Emerges US CENTCOM Commander Kurilla arrives in Israel to discuss Gaza Phase 2 transition and “multi-frontier situation.” IDF is evaluating withdrawal from some Gaza positions and transferring to international stabilization forces, though internal divisions persist. Israel’s Energy Minister publicly opposes the current deal, stating “we do not trust any piece of paper from Hamas.”

3. Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan Defense Pact Formed β€” “Islamic NATO” Takes Shape Turkish FM Fidan reveals the Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan defense pact is “technically identical to NATO Article 5,” with a ministerial committee and secretary-general. Egypt may join, and multiple countries have expressed interest. Fidan emphasizes it does not target Iran, but an attack on any member triggers collective defense.

4. Ukrainian Drone Violates Bulgarian Airspace A Ukrainian drone entered Bulgarian airspace and exploded on Bulgarian territory, threatening the Trans-Balkan natural gas pipeline (which transports Russian gas to Europe via Turkey). Bulgaria demands an explanation; Ukraine’s MFA claims it was unintentional.

5. US July CPI Due This Week, Inflation May Ease Institutions expect July CPI MoM +0.1% (vs June -0.4%), core CPI YoY 2.5%, the lowest since February. If inflation pressures ease further, it will suppress Fed rate hike expectations.

6. Other

  • China’s Bohai Bay’s first 100-billion-cubic-meter gas field (Bozhong 19-6) Phase I fully operational, daily output >5,200 tons of oil equivalent
  • Zelensky visits Serbia; both countries agree to deepen economic cooperation
  • 5.6 magnitude earthquake off Iwate Prefecture, Japan

🧭 Situation Assessment

Geopolitical risks remain elevated but show no further escalation; US-Iran enters “mid-game” phase with near-term military intensity stabilizing.

Gold rose 2.37% to 4,341, bouncing strongly from an intraday low of 4,229, indicating solid buying support around 4,250.

Crude oil fell 1.32% to the 76 range, with geopolitical premium unwinding and demand concerns weighing; short-term upside catalysts remain absent.

The key variable this week is US July CPI data. If core CPI YoY meets expectations at 2.5%, it will further suppress rate hike expectations, benefiting gold and risk assets.

Middle East multilateral diplomacy is intensive: the Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan defense pact and CENTCOM commander’s shuttle visits indicate all parties are positioning for a “post-conflict phase.”

πŸ“… Today’s Economic Calendar

Sunday (August 9), no major economic data releases. Focus this week on US July CPI data.