π° Morning Briefing (00:00-08:00) | 2026-08-08
US July NFP unexpectedly fell by 23K vs +80K expected; gold surged over 2% to $4,340. Iran and Oman reached framework agreement on Hormuz Strait passage; oil retreated. SpaceX surged 16% on reports of Cursor acquisition.
π Market Overview
- Gold XAUUSD: $4,341.11 (+2.37%, intraday high $4,371.77)
- WTI Crude USOIL: $76.35 (-1.32%)
- US Stock Close: Dow +0.28% (54,036) | S&P 500 +0.62% (7,757, new closing high) | Nasdaq +1.30%
- HSI Futures Night Session: 25,790 (+0.49%, 122-point premium)
π₯ Key Overnight News
1. US July NFP Unexpectedly Falls β Down 23K
Expected +80K, actual -23K. 12-month average monthly gain down to just 34K. Unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. Local government education and retail dragged employment down; healthcare continued to expand. May and June payrolls revised lower. Wall Street called the report “terrifying,” significantly reducing odds of a Fed rate hike in September. Gold surged over $50 on the data.
2. Iran and Oman Reach Framework Agreement on Hormuz Strait
Iran and Oman have clarified the general framework of a memorandum of understanding on Hormuz Strait shipping. US officials said progress has been made and an agreement is expected soon. Once unimpeded commercial shipping is restored, the US will lift its blockade on Iranian ports. Oil prices dipped on the news. Iranian President Pezeshkian emphasized no concessions were made in negotiations.
3. SpaceX Surges 15.8% on Cursor Acquisition Reports
According to The Information, SpaceX (SPCX.O) may complete its $60 billion acquisition of coding startup Cursor as early as next weekend. Cursor will be integrated with SpaceX’s AI team. IMG Wealth Management disclosed holding 212 shares of SpaceX Class A stock.
4. US Senate Passes Russia Sanctions Bill
Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed gratitude for the US Senate’s passage of the Russia sanctions bill. European Commission President von der Leyen also welcomed the move.
5. Trump Announces $3 Billion Mining Projects
Trump announced a series of mining projects worth $3 billion at a mining roundtable, including a $400 million investment in MP Materials (now worth ~$1.2 billion). The US Export-Import Bank will provide $58 million in loans to three critical mineral companies. The White House will provide over $2 billion in funding to four battery and mineral companies.
6. JPMorgan Raises Tech Debt Issuance Forecast to $540 Billion
JPMorgan raised its 2026 technology, media, and telecom debt issuance forecast from $450 billion to $540 billion.
7. BofA Bull/Bear Signal Hits Highest Since 2021
Global investor bullish sentiment has surged to its highest level since 2021. Semiconductor recovery and earnings beats are driving markets into extreme optimism territory.
8. UBS Raises Gold Price Target to $5,000
UBS believes bullish buying and safe-haven sentiment will continue to support the rally. COMEX gold speculative net long positions increased by 12,070 contracts to 132,398.
9. CFTC Positioning Changes
- WTI crude net long decreased by 4,683 contracts to 101,824
- Natural gas net short increased by 28,093 contracts to 89,090
- US Treasury futures net short decreased by 41,225 contracts to 176,272
- Japanese yen net short 45,473 contracts, euro net short 58,091 contracts
π§ Assessment
The NFP unexpectedly turned negative with a 12-month average of just 34K, a clear signal of labor market cooling that significantly reduces the probability of a Fed rate hike in September.
Gold spiked to near $4,370 after the data before pulling back, but trading at $4,340 combined with UBS’s $5,000 target and CFTC long additions suggests short-term momentum remains bullish.
Substantive progress in Hormuz Strait negotiations is the main driver behind overnight oil weakness, with WTI retreating from the settlement price of $78.18 to $76.35 as geopolitical premium is being gradually priced out.
SpaceX’s acquisition of Cursor, if completed, would be one of the largest AI-sector M&A deals, extending the expansion logic of the tech sector with corresponding debt supply growth.
BofA’s sentiment indicator hitting its highest since 2021 warrants caution as a contrarian signal β extreme optimism is often a sign of short-term market tops.
Next week’s US CPI combined with the weak NFP creates a dual-data scenario: if CPI also comes in soft, rate cut expectations will fully reignite; if CPI beats expectations, it will form a stagflation narrative of weak employment plus high inflation.
π Today’s Economic Calendar
Saturday β no major economic data releases.
Next Week Highlights:
- US July Unadjusted CPI YoY
- USDA August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Report (Aug 13)
- Malaysia MPOB July Palm Oil Supply and Demand Report