π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-07 23:00 CST
US July Non-Farm Payrolls unexpectedly declined by 23K, described as "terrifying" by Wall Street; Fed's Barkin struck hawkish tone, probability of no rate cut in September rose to 65%; ADNOC reports 15 vessels attacked in Strait of Hormuz, 1 dead and 20 injured; US storage stocks plunge, Seagate down 10%.
π Market Overview
- Gold XAUUSD: $4,344.72/oz, down 2.46% (-104.27) on the day; Open $4,239.37, High $4,371.77, Low $4,229.73, intraday range exceeds $140
- WTI Crude USOIL: $77.17/bbl, slightly down 0.26% (-0.20); Open $77.19, High $77.87, Low $75.68
- USD/CAD: 1.3941, down over 0.50% intraday
π₯ Key News This Hour
1. Fed’s Barkin Speaks Extensively Barkin made multiple comments on employment, inflation, and monetary policy:
- Labor market in “weak balance” β characterized by “low hiring, low layoffs”; employment data unsatisfactory but that’s the reality
- Inflation must return to 2% target; must tighten policy if facing headwinds
- Does not see wage inflation; corporate earnings strong with good growth
- May be entering a more volatile world
- Unclear how much AI impacts overall productivity levels
2. July Non-Farm Payrolls “Terrifying” US July non-farm payrolls unexpectedly declined by 23K, far below market expectations. Wall Street described the report as “terrifying.” Although seasonal factors and World Cup effects distorted the data, it significantly weakened expectations for a Fed September rate cut. Kalshi prediction platform shows probability of no rate change next month rose to 65%.
3. ADNOC: 15 Vessels Attacked in Strait of Hormuz UAE’s Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) announced that 15 ADNOC-flagged vessels have been attacked since the conflict began. Three vessels were attacked this week while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in 1 crew member killed and 20 injured.
4. US Storage Sector Plunges Seagate Technology down 10%, Western Digital down 5.8%, SanDisk down 5.2%, SK Hynix down 6%, Micron down 3.5%.
**5. SpaceX Surges Over 11% Argus Research upgraded SpaceX to Buy, driving the stock price higher.
6. White House Economic Advisor Hassett Speaks Acknowledged high natural gas prices; stated Trump would not advise Fed Chair Warsh on interest rates; said labor market needs about 40K new jobs per month to maintain balance.
7. Canada and US Discuss Trade Concessions Canada is in talks with the US on a potential deal where Ottawa would meet Trump administration trade demands in exchange for partial tariff relief.
π§ Situation Assessment
July non-farm payrolls unexpectedly turned negative, confirming the “weak balance” of the labor market, but Barkin struck a hawkish tone, emphasizing inflation must return to 2% and tightening may be needed if headwinds persist.
Non-farm data and Barkin’s remarks create a tug-of-war: weak data points to rate cuts, but Fed officials remain hawkish; Kalshi shows September no-change probability rising to 65%.
Strait of Hormuz situation escalating β ADNOC reports 15 vessels attacked with casualties; Middle East geopolitical risk continues to ferment, oil supply concerns persist.
Gold sees extreme intraday volatility with a range exceeding $140, reflecting intense bull-bear battles following non-farm data and Fed official remarks.
US storage sector sell-off across the board, potentially related to AI compute demand expectation adjustments or concerns about peaking storage chip cycle.
Canada-US trade concession negotiations advancing; North American trade landscape may be shifting.
β° Upcoming Important Data
- US July NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations (imminent)