πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • Gold (XAUUSD): $4,359.09 (+2.80% on the day, high of $4,371.77)
  • WTI Crude (USOIL): $75.72 (-2.14% on the day, low of $75.69)
  • Dollar Index (DXY): 99.67 (dropped ~30 points, falling below 100)
  • USD/JPY: Broke below 157, down over 1% intraday
  • GBP/USD: Above 1.35, up 0.35% intraday
  • COMEX Gold: Above $4,400/oz

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

1. US July NFP Unexpectedly Falls by 23K Far below market expectations of +80K, marking the first decline since February. May and June data were revised down by a combined 103K (May from 129K to 63K, June from 57K to 20K). The 12-month average monthly gain is now only 34K.

2. July Unemployment Rate Drops to 4.1% Unexpectedly fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, the lowest since June 2025. However, this was mainly driven by a decline in labor force participation rate (61.4% vs. expected 61.6%), meaning fewer people seeking work rather than genuine employment improvement.

3. Wage Growth Slows Sharply July average hourly earnings YoY 3.2% (expected 3.5%), MoM only 0.1% (expected 0.3%), prior revised down from 3.5% to 3.4%. Wage inflation pressure is clearly easing.

4. Violent Market Reactions Treasury prices surged, 10-year UK Gilt yield fell to 4.898%; Dollar Index broke below 100; Gold spiked ~$40 then continued higher; US stock futures continued to rise.

5. Fed Rate Hike Expectations Cool Interest rate futures now price in only 28 basis points of rate hikes by December, down from 32 basis points before the NFP release.

6. Japan-US FX Intervention Communication Japanese Finance Minister Katayama stated agreement with US Treasury Secretary Bessent that FX markets are driven by non-fundamental forces, and both sides will not hesitate to take intervention measures when necessary.

7. Caspian Pipeline Oil Supply Disrupted Due to drone attacks, CPC pipeline July oil loadings fell 20% behind schedule, dropping to 1.2-1.3 million barrels per day.

🧭 Situation Assessment

July NFP data came in comprehensively weak, with payrolls unexpectedly turning negative and prior revisions large, combined with notably slowing wage growth, indicating the US labor market is cooling in real terms.

The unemployment rate decline is mainly due to lower labor force participation rather than employment improvement, meaning actual employment quality is deteriorating.

Following the data release, gold surged, the dollar dove, and Treasury yields fell, as the market repriced the Fed’s policy path β€” rate hike expectations clearly cooled.

The Japan-US agreement on “non-fundamental driven” FX moves suggests Japan’s intervention threshold is lowering if the yen continues to weaken.

Caspian pipeline supply disruptions combined with Fitch’s medium-term view of oil returning to $60 put crude under pressure today, with geopolitical risk premium and demand expectations in a tug-of-war.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • Next week’s US CPI data (inflation trend verification)
  • Continued attention to Fed officials’ commentary on NFP data
  • Watch for potential BoJ FX intervention moves