πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • Gold (XAUUSD): $4,316.29/oz β–² +1.79%, new high since June 18
  • Silver (XAGUSD): $64.60/oz β–² +5.00%, sharp intraday rally
  • WTI Crude (USOIL): $76.36/bbl β–Ό -1.31%
  • Brent Crude: Below $82/bbl, down 0.94% intraday

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

1. Precious Metals Surge β€” Safe Haven Demand Rises

Gold breaks above $4,316, up 1.79% on the day, extending its rally to new highs since June 18. Silver surges 5% to $64.60/oz. The synchronized precious metals rally signals a significant increase in safe-haven demand.

2. BofA: Market Sentiment at Most Extreme Bullish Level Since 2021

Bank of America strategists led by Michael Hartnett report that investor bullishness has climbed to its most extreme level since 2021, recommending reduced exposure to risk assets. This is a warning sign for US equity investors β€” extreme bullishness often precedes market tops.

3. Trump on AI and the Fed

Trump stated that “AI is many times bigger than the internet” and “may be more important than oil β€” whoever wins AI wins everything.” On the Fed, he said rate decisions are “not entirely up to Warsh,” noting Warsh faces a “very political committee.” Trump also claimed he “may be the last Republican president” and expressed optimism about midterm elections.

4. Turkey-Saudi-Pakistan Sign “Mecca Agreement” Defense Pact

According to Iran’s Tasnim news agency, the trilateral defense agreement among Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan has been officially named the “Mecca Agreement.” A new variable in the Middle East-South Asia geopolitical landscape.

5. Russia-Ukraine Conflict Continues

Russia’s Defense Ministry reported hitting 34 Ukrainian military vessels over the past week, along with two large-scale strikes and 12 cluster strikes on Ukrainian defense industry and logistics centers.

6. Japan’s GPIF Records Largest Quarterly Profit Ever

The world’s largest pension fund, GPIF, posted a record quarterly profit of 24.1 trillion yen in Q2, benefiting from the global stock bull market. However, Japanese bond yields spiked on expectations of fiscal expansion under the Takaichi government.

7. Investment Banks Adjust Chinese Stock Holdings

Goldman Sachs increased its long position in Luxshare Precision (02475.HK) to 20.27% while cutting Zhongji Innolight (03308.HK) to 11.6%. JPMorgan moved in the opposite direction, raising its Zhongji Innolight stake to 15.02%. Institutional divergence emerges on optical module leaders.

8. Analysts Raise Energy Stock Price Targets

TD Cowen raised ExxonMobil (XOM) target from $155 to $168; JPMorgan raised ConocoPhillips (COP) target from $124 to $134. Despite oil falling on the day, analysts remain constructive on the energy sector’s long-term value.

9. South-Bound Capital Net Sells HK Stocks by HK$778M

Tencent and Alibaba-W saw net selling via Stock Connect. Meanwhile, China and Malaysia renewed their currency swap agreement, expanding it to CNY 220bn / MYR 130bn.

🧭 Assessment

The surge in precious metals combined with BofA’s extreme bullish sentiment warning suggests the market may be approaching a turning point.

Trump’s emphasis on AI further reinforces the narrative of AI as a core strategic asset, providing medium-term support for tech stocks.

The divergence between falling oil prices and analyst upgrades on energy stocks warrants attention β€” whether this is noise or a fundamental inflection signal.

The “Mecca Agreement,” ongoing Russia-Ukraine escalation, and gold’s new highs indicate geopolitical risk premium is being repriced.

Next week’s US July CPI and PPI data will be critical in shaping market expectations ahead of the Fed’s September meeting.

⏰ Upcoming Key Events

  • Aug 13 (Thu): USDA August Monthly Supply and Demand Report (00:00 Beijing Time)
  • Next Week: US July CPI and PPI data
  • Next Week: China July M2 Money Supply YoY
  • Next Week Earnings: Tencent (00700.HK), JD.com (09618.HK), China Mobile (00941.HK), SMIC (00981.HK)