π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-07 15:00 CST
Gold surges past $4,297 to record high, silver rallies 3% as Goldman warns short squeeze just beginning; US July non-farm payrolls tonight with huge forecast divergence (+10K to +65K); German industrial output rises for third straight month; South Korea KOSPI falls for 7th consecutive week, longest streak since Dec 2022.
π Market Snapshot
| Asset | Latest | Daily Change |
|---|---|---|
| Spot Gold | 4297.23 | +1.34% β |
| WTI Crude | 77.01 | -0.46% β |
Gold extended its strongest weekly performance since January, hitting an intraday high of 4298.68, just shy of the 4300 psychological level. Silver rallied even harder, surging 3.00% to $63.37/oz. WTI crude slipped to near $77, diverging further from the precious metals rally.
π₯ Key News This Hour
1. Silver “Short Squeeze” Returns β Goldman Warns It’s Just Beginning
Goldman Sachs’ top trader notes that silver’s short-term momentum signals have turned bullish, with CTA short covering officially underway. However, the 3-month lease rate has actually declined rather than risen, suggesting physical demand hasn’t caught up β raising questions about the sustainability of the squeeze. Silver gained 3% intraday to $63.37/oz, up over 8% on the week.
2. US July Non-Farm Payrolls Tonight β Massive Forecast Divergence
Institutional forecasts compiled by Jin10 show new job estimates ranging from Vanguard’s +10K to Deutsche Bank’s +65K β an extraordinary divergence. Most institutions expect the unemployment rate to hold at 4.2%, with National Bank of Canada forecasting a slight drop to 4.1%. The prior reading was +57K. The data will directly shape market pricing for the Fed’s September rate decision.
3. German Industrial Output Rises for Third Consecutive Month
German June industrial production MoM +0.2%, below last month’s pace but marking the third straight month of growth, with the automotive sector as the primary driver. Europe’s largest economy is weathering geopolitical headwinds. However, the workday-adjusted annual rate came in at -0.1%, indicating the recovery remains modest.
4. South Korea KOSPI Falls for 7th Straight Week β Longest Streak Since Dec 2022
KOSPI dropped 5.1% this week, its seventh consecutive weekly decline. SK Hynix fell 4.88% on the day. The Nikkei 225 closed slightly lower at 65,606 (-0.12%), and Australia’s ASX200 fell 0.11%.
5. NVIDIA Jetson Module Prices Double β Chinese Alternatives Accelerate
NVIDIA’s Jetson AGX Orin module price was raised from $899 to $1,799 β a 100% increase. Li Gong Lei Ke immediately launched its “Shanhai” AI computing module as a domestic alternative. The chip substitution narrative is accelerating in edge AI.
6. Japan’s GPIF Reports Β₯24.09 Trillion Q2 Returns
Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) reported investment returns of Β₯24.09 trillion for the April-June quarter, reflecting broad-based gains in global asset prices during Q2.
π§ Situation Assessment
Gold is just $2 away from the 4300 level, on track for its best weekly performance since January β the result of safe-haven demand (geopolitical risk premium) outweighing hawkish monetary policy expectations.
Silver surged 3% but lease rates haven’t followed, creating “paper squeeze” risk β if physical demand doesn’t cooperate, the correction could be equally violent.
Tonight’s non-farm payrolls is the key variable for the week’s close β the massive forecast divergence from +10K to +65K means any deviation could trigger sharp volatility in either direction, and whether gold holds above 4300 depends on where the data lands.
KOSPI’s seven-week decline reflects pressure on Asian tech stocks, forming a sharp contrast with A-shares’ three consecutive days of turnover above Β₯2.5 trillion β capital is clearly rebalancing within the Asia-Pacific region.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- 20:30 CST US July Non-Farm Payrolls (prior: +57K) βββββ
- 20:30 CST US July Unemployment Rate (prior: 4.2%) ββββ
- 20:30 CST US July Average Hourly Earnings YoY/MoM βββ
- 22:00 CST US June Wholesale Inventories MoM Final ββ