π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-05 23:00 CST
U.S. EIA crude oil inventory unexpectedly surges by 2.479M barrels vs -1.506M forecast; Treasury lifts some Iran-related sanctions, officials deny policy shift; geopolitical conflicts escalate across multiple fronts, gold surges 4% near $4,250.
π Market Snapshot
- Spot Gold XAUUSD: $4,243.22, +$166.03 (+4.07%) β¬οΈ β intraday high at $4,247.63, nearing all-time highs
- WTI Crude USOIL: $74.32, -$0.01 (-0.02%) β little changed post-EIA data
- Spot Silver: intraday gain widened to 5%, at $62.51/oz
- Shanghai Gold 2610: +2.56%, at 918.98 yuan/g
- Shanghai Silver 2610: +4.05%, at 15,313 yuan/kg
- Iron Ore Main: +2.00%, at 715.50 yuan/ton
π₯ Key News This Hour
EIA Crude Inventory Unexpectedly Surges β U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose by 2.479M barrels for the week ending July 31, against expectations of a -1.506M drawdown and prior -716.7M. Cushing inventory also rose by 2.356M barrels. Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to its lowest since February 1983. However, gasoline stocks drew down 1.643M and distillate stocks saw a significant 3.473M drawdown, with diesel exports hitting a record high. Contradictory signals limited oil price movement.
U.S. Treasury Lifts Some Iran-Related Sanctions β The Treasury Department removed sanctions from IRGC-linked entities including Fly Baghdad, two aircraft, and three airlines. Fox News reported officials denied this represents a policy shift. Meanwhile, Iran and Oman reached a draft agreement, signaling a potential “ice-breaking” moment.
Geopolitical Conflicts Escalate on Multiple Fronts β Zelensky stated Ukraine will destroy Russian ballistic missile launchers; Houthi forces claimed a ballistic missile attack on a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea; Russia’s Saratov refinery shut down after an August 2 drone attack.
Precious Metals Surge Across the Board β Gold rose over 4% toward $4,250, silver up 5%. Geopolitical risks combined with safe-haven demand drove the precious metals rally. Shanghai gold and silver futures rose in tandem.
U.S. July ISM Non-Manufacturing Data Released β Supplier delivery index at 52.8 (prev. 54.4), inventory index at 51.4 (prev. 51.2). The delivery index decline suggests easing supply chain pressures.
π§ Situation Assessment
Gold broke above the $4,200 mark, with intraday highs reaching $4,247 β safe-haven sentiment is running extremely high.
EIA inventory data presents contradictory signals: the surge in crude and Cushing inventories is bearish for oil prices, but the significant drawdowns in gasoline and distillate stocks alongside record diesel exports indicate robust end-user demand.
The U.S.-Iran relationship shows subtle signs of thawing, but Treasury officials rushed to clarify this is not a policy shift β it’s premature to over-interpret in the short term.
The Ukraine-Russia and Houthi-Saudi geopolitical conflict lines are heating up simultaneously, compounded by the Russian refinery shutdown β energy supply risk premiums are rising.
Overall, safe-haven assets remain supported in the short term, gold’s strong trend is intact, and crude oil is pressured by inventory builds but has geopolitical risk as a floor beneath it.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- Tomorrow (Thursday): Watch for U.S. weekly initial jobless claims
- Continue monitoring Middle East developments and U.S.-Iran relations