πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

Spot Gold XAUUSD: $4,188.31/oz (+2.73% intraday, high $4,213.51, first break above $4,200 in a month) WTI Crude USOIL: $75.16/bbl (+1.11% intraday, high $75.79)

Gold accelerated above $4,200 after ADP data then pulled back slightly; crude remains range-bound with a bullish bias.

πŸ”₯ Top Stories This Hour

1. US July ADP Employment +44K, Far Below Expectations

July “mini non-farm” added 44K jobs vs. 70K expected and 98K prior, the lowest since January this year. Hiring was broadly weak across sectors, with healthcare contributing most gains. However, wage growth for job switchers accelerated, indicating lingering supply constraints in parts of the labor market.

2. Fed’s Kashkari: Time to Gradually Start Hiking Rates

Kashkari told CNBC that now is the time to gradually start raising rates, but he does not advocate aggressive hikes. He attributed recent inflation largely to supply shocks with some demand components, and emphasized that clearly communicating the Fed’s policy “reaction function” helps markets understand.

3. US Treasury Keeps Quarterly Refunding at $125 Billion

The Treasury maintained auction sizes unchanged, with the quarterly refunding of $125 billion in line with expectations. 3-year $58B, 10-year $42B, 30-year $25B. Nominal auction sizes expected to remain stable Aug-Oct, TIPS sizes unchanged. Cash balance could peak around $1.05 trillion in October.

4. Hormuz Strait Reopening Proposal: No Transit Fees on Vessels

According to CBS, the interim proposal being negotiated between Iran and Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz would not impose tolls or service fees on transiting vessels, further reducing geopolitical risk premium.

5. Israel-Lebanon Tensions Escalate

The IDF announced it will attack Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, citing violations of the ceasefire. Israel ordered southern Lebanon residents to evacuate, and the Defense Minister instructed not to reduce troop levels near Gaza.

6. CPC Pipeline Loadings Suspended Again

Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) loading operations were suspended again after a brief resumption due to security concerns and a tanker shortage following drone attacks, posing a potential disruption to crude supply.

7. Shopify Q2 International GMV +37%

Shopify reported Q2 international gross merchandise volume up 37%, with AI-driven traffic and store orders both tripling year-over-year.

🧭 Situation Assessment

ADP data significantly missed expectations with a clear cooling signal in the labor market, likely prompting further downward revisions to Friday’s non-farm payroll forecasts.

Kashkari’s “gradual hiking” stance clashes with weak ADP data β€” supply-side inflation pressure and demand-side employment slowdown coexist, placing the Fed in a dilemma.

The Treasury’s decision to keep auction sizes unchanged was as expected, temporarily easing concerns about long-end supply shocks, but the October cash balance peak still warrants attention.

Gold briefly topped $4,200 after ADP, driven by both safe-haven demand and rate-cut expectations, but Kashkari’s hawkish remarks may cap upside.

Middle East dynamics are mixed: Hormuz negotiation progress supports risk sentiment, while Israel-Lebanon escalation and CPC suspension provide offsets, leaving crude in a choppy range.

Friday’s non-farm payrolls will be the key variable this week; ADP weakness may foreshadow a soft NFP print β€” prepare for elevated volatility.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • Fri 20:30 CST: US July Non-Farm Payrolls report (the week’s most critical data)
  • Thu 20:30 CST: US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
  • Aug 11-13: 3Y/10Y/30Y Treasury auctions