📰 Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-05 11:00 CST

📊 Market Snapshot

Gold surged ~$30 in one hour, rallying from 4101 to 4129, with daily gains widening to 1.28% and hitting a high of 4135. Silver broke above $60/oz, up 2%. Platinum and palladium futures jumped over 7%. Precious metals rallied across the board.

Crude oil remained weak, with WTI falling to $73.93. SC crude futures plunged 6% to RMB 504.7/barrel as Hormuz Strait deal expectations sharply reduced geopolitical premium. Container shipping (Europe route) main contract dropped over 8%.

In A-shares, the SSE 50 rose over 1%, led by STAR 50. AMEC surged 10%, and the China-Korea Semiconductor ETF gained 5%. CPO sector losses narrowed but remained under pressure — Zhongji Innolight down over 10%. ChiNext fell over 1%.

🔥 Key News This Hour

1. Hormuz Strait Deal Imminent — Announcement Expected Wednesday

According to Axios, the US, Iran, and Oman are close to reaching a temporary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The US plans to announce the deal as early as Wednesday local time. The preliminary agreement would meet Iran’s main demands regarding the strait. This marks a major turning point in Middle East geopolitics — upgrading from last hour’s “positive progress” to “deal about to land.” The news directly pressured oil prices, with SC crude down 6% and WTI falling to $73.9.

2. US Restricts Tungsten Scrap and Battery Recycling Material Exports

The US will ban exports of tungsten scrap and recycled battery materials later this month. This comes less than a week after President Trump authorized restrictions on critical materials. Tungsten is essential for cemented carbide and semiconductor manufacturing, and this ban will further tighten critical mineral supply chains.

3. Precious Metals Surge — Gold Above 4129, Silver Breaks 60

Spot gold surged $50 intraday to $4129.45/oz, up 1.28%. Spot silver broke above $60/oz, up 2%. Shanghai silver main contract rose 4.85% to RMB 14,790/kg, platinum gained 7.72%, and palladium rose 7.16%. The precious metals rally is driven by safe-haven demand from geopolitical reshaping and supply chain anxiety triggered by US critical material export restrictions.

4. A-share Optical Module Makers Respond to US Ban — FCC Confirms Drafting

A-share communication equipment sector saw losses narrow after a brutal open. Zhongji Innolight fell over 13%, Eoptolink over 10%, and Liantronics over 11%. Reports confirmed the US FCC is drafting a ban on new data center components. Companies stated they are verifying the information. Market participants believe the ban is unlikely and impact is manageable, but the sentiment shock has already hit.

5. AMEC Surges 10% — Samsung and SK Hynix Evaluate Chinese Semiconductor Equipment

Media reports indicate Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are evaluating Chinese semiconductor equipment maker AMEC’s chip manufacturing tools for potential use at their China facilities. AMEC surged over 10%, and the China-Korea Semiconductor ETF rose over 5%. This is a milestone for Chinese semiconductor equipment entering overseas mainstream supply chains.

6. Bessent’s Hedge Fund Playbook to Save the Yen

US Treasury Secretary Bessent teamed up with Japan to launch the first currency intervention in nearly 30 years. The former hedge fund manager who once earned $1 billion from a forex bet used unconventional tactics — including letting reporters glimpse his notebook to signal intentions and tapping euro reserves. Direct intervention by a US Treasury Secretary in forex markets is extremely rare.

7. SpaceX Q2 Revenue Up 92%, Losses Narrowing

SpaceX’s first post-listing earnings report showed Q2 revenue growth of 92% YoY with significantly narrowed losses. Musk announced the $1 trillion annual revenue target could be achieved ahead of schedule by 2030. AI acceleration is a key growth driver.

8. Korean Memory Giants’ Executives Charged with Breach of Trust — Police Investigation Launched

A Korean shareholder group filed criminal complaints against the CEOs of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, alleging their bonuses were not subject to collective bargaining agreements. Police have launched an investigation. Meanwhile, Korean media predicts Korea will maintain its global memory chip market leadership through 2031, though HBM demand is shifting away from NVIDIA’s GPUs.

🧭 Situation Assessment

If the Hormuz Strait deal lands on Wednesday, it will be a major geopolitical turning point — the geopolitical premium is rapidly exiting oil and shipping markets, with SC crude down 6% and container shipping down 8% as markets price in the outcome.

However, beware of “buy the rumor, sell the news” risk — the agreement is only a temporary arrangement, and Iran’s leverage and execution commitment remain unknown.

The coexistence of a precious metals surge and crude oil plunge indicates the market is not simply risk-on or risk-off, but repricing supply chain security — the US restriction on tungsten and battery material exports is a new catalyst.

Critical mineral controls are expanding from import to export side, as the US builds a bidirectional supply chain barrier, posing medium-to-long-term pressure on China’s high-end manufacturing and semiconductor material chain.

AMEC’s evaluation by Samsung and SK Hynix is a milestone for Chinese semiconductor equipment going global — if it materializes, it could partially offset the impact of US equipment bans.

Bessent’s direct intervention in the yen market breaks the tradition of US Treasury Secretaries not directly participating in forex operations, signaling that dollar system dynamics are entering a new phase.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

• Today 22:00 (CST) US July ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (prev 53.6, expected 54)
• Today 22:00 (CST) US June Factory Orders MoM (prev -0.5%, expected +0.3%)
• Thursday 20:30 (CST) US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
• Ongoing Hormuz Strait deal may be announced Wednesday
• Ongoing DeepSeek financing progress (signing expected late August)