📊 Market Overview

  • 🥇 Gold XAUUSD: 4071.65 (-0.14%), hit 4085 intraday before pulling back
  • 🛢️ WTI Crude USOIL: 74.40 (-0.09%), strait reopening expectations continue to pressure prices
  • 📈 S&P 500 hit new all-time high overnight, healthy rotation from AI to traditional sectors
  • 💴 Yen remains under pressure, US-Japan joint intervention limited; Japan June wage growth 3.4% slightly below forecast
  • 📊 Fed September rate hike 25bp probability at 58.4%

🔥 Key Overnight News

1. Hormuz Strait Reopening Signals Treasury Secretary Bessent says a US-Iran deal could come as soon as Wednesday, reopening the Hormuz Strait and restoring “free transit.” Iran is considering allowing European countries to clear mines, with Europe and Gulf states potentially co-funding. However, Iran still demands “full control” over all inbound vessels. Oil prices fell sharply; gold hit 4100 intraday.

2. AMD Drops ~9% After Hours AMD’s revenue outlook fell short of some investor expectations, with shares down ~9% after hours. AMD’s post-earnings reactions have skewed negative even when beating estimates in recent years. Wall Street wants more than just “beating expectations”—forward guidance is the focus.

3. Palantir Revenue Nearly Doubles Palantir Q2 revenue grew 93% YoY, significantly raising full-year guidance. The “AI sovereignty” concept is driving enterprise client adoption, creating a new growth engine.

4. SpaceX First Earnings Call: Musk Drops Bombshells SpaceX held its first earnings call. Musk announced: Grok 4.6 launching next week, Grok 5 within the year; SpaceX AI services to “exclusively” run on NVIDIA systems, with plans for space-based data centers; Starship to safely carry humans by end of 2027; at least 1,000 Starlink V3 satellites to launch by Q2 next year.

5. S&P 500 Hits New All-Time High UBS is bullish, noting capital is being reallocated from AI to traditional sectors. Market consensus holds that as long as corporate earnings remain resilient, the rotational uptrend can continue.

6. Yen Crisis Persists Bessent warned that yen weakness threatens Asian stability; US Treasury used euro reserves to buy yen for intervention. However, interest rate differentials and fiscal expansion pressures mean the Bank of Japan’s September meeting is now critical. Takaichi’s tax-cut fiscal gamble is causing LDP infighting.

7. US Military Missile Inventory Dwindling Iran conflict has consumed significant stockpiles: Patriot missiles down 65%, Tomahawks nearly halved. Defense Secretary Hegseth dismissed CNN reports of 80% THAAD interceptor depletion.

8. Trump Administration Returns $100 Billion in Tariffs Since the Supreme Court ruled emergency tariff powers invalid, Customs has paid approximately $100 billion in refunds.

9. AI Regulation Updates White House excludes open-source models from advanced AI capability testing framework. UK AI Safety Institute reports safety incident involving Anthropic and OpenAI models.

10. New Zealand Q2 Unemployment Rises to 5.6% Above the 5.4% forecast; labor participation rate at 70.7% exceeded expectations. Labor cost index YoY at 2.1%, matching forecast.

🧭 Market Assessment

The Hormuz Strait situation shows substantive de-escalation signals; Bessent’s “deal as soon as Wednesday” language is positive, but Iran’s demand for “full control” remains a core contradiction—caution against excessive optimism is warranted.

Oil prices have fully priced in reopening expectations, with WTI trading narrowly around 74. A deal could push prices lower short-term, but a negotiation breakdown would carry significant upside risk.

Gold is consolidating high around 4070, having touched 4100 before pulling back, reflecting the dual effect of geopolitical de-escalation and cooling safe-haven demand.

AMD’s after-hours selloff reflects market concerns about marginal growth slowdown in AI hardware, contrasting with Palantir’s strength—capital is shifting from “shovel sellers” to “gold miners.”

Yen intervention effects are short-lived; the BoJ’s September meeting faces mounting pressure, with Takaichi’s fiscal expansion plus rate hike combination encountering political resistance.

Fed September hike probability rose to 58.4%; Chairman Schmid’s speech today will be a key signal window.

📅 Today’s Key Data Calendar

  • 08:15 Fed Chairman Schmid speaks ⭐⭐⭐
  • 09:45 China July RatingDog Services PMI ⭐⭐⭐
  • 14:45 France June Industrial Production MoM ⭐⭐
  • 15:50 France July Services PMI Final ⭐⭐
  • More Eurozone services PMI finals throughout the session