π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-04 22:00 CST
Strait of Hormuz reopening imminent, US Treasury Secretary says Iran deal possible tomorrow, oil crashes 4.5%. US stocks surge at open, S&P 500 hits intraday all-time high, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 5%+. Palantir raises full-year revenue guidance +14.7%, Snap Q2 revenue beats +10%.
π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-04 22:00 CST
π Market Snapshot
| Asset | Latest | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Gold (XAUUSD) | 4084.24 | +28.96 (+0.71%) |
| WTI Crude (USOIL) | 75.181 | -3.54 (-4.50%) |
- Gold surged $30 intraday, briefly breaking above $4,090/oz; safe-haven demand persists
- WTI crude crashed 4.5%, Brent down 4% to mid-July lows; Hormuz reopening expectations and Iran deal progress pressure oil prices
- USδΈε€§ indices surged at open: Dow +1.51%, S&P 500 +0.50% (intraday all-time high), Nasdaq +0.78%
- Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 5%+: ARM +11.5%, MRVL +11%, INTC +7%, MU +6.7%
π₯ Key News This Hour
1. Strait of Hormuz Reopening Imminent, Iran Deal Possible Tomorrow Per Al Arabiya TV sources, arrangements for the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will be announced within hours or tomorrow. US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated an Iran deal could be reached as early as tomorrow. Investinglive analyst Adam Button believes the oil sell-off indirectly confirms the news. Crude futures across the board plunged, with SC crude down 4.04%.
2. US Stocks Hit All-Time High at Open, Semiconductors Lead S&P 500 set an intraday all-time high at the open. Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 5%+, with ARM +11.5%, Marvell +11%, Intel +7%, Micron +6.7%. Optics and photonics stocks also strengthened: Applied Optoelectronics +16%, Coherent +11%, Lumentum +7%.
3. Earnings Divergence: Palantir/Snap Surge, Spotify/Amazon Under Pressure
- Palantir (PLTR) +14.7%, significantly raised full-year revenue guidance
- Snap (SNAP) +10%, Q2 revenue beat expectations
- Spotify (SPOT) -4.3%, Q3 profit and MAU guidance below expectations
- Amazon (AMZN) -2.2%, Bezos to sell ~$4B in stock
- DuPont (DD) -4.2%, lowered annual sales forecast
4. Treasury Secretary Bessent Warns Yen Weakness Threatens Asian Stability Bessent stated extreme yen weakness has pushed up Japanese inflation and threatens Asian financial stability. The US Treasury deployed euros from foreign exchange reserves to buy yen for intervention.
5. Samsung Foundry Business May Reach Near-Full Capacity by H2 2026 Reports suggest Samsung’s chip foundry business could approach full capacity utilization in H2 2026, marking a turning point after prolonged underutilization, though 2nm yield remains a challenge.
π§ Assessment
The Hormuz reopening expectation is the biggest variable this hour. If confirmed, oil has further downside near-term, but beware of “buy the rumor, sell the news” reversal risk.
US stocks hit all-time highs driven by Iran de-escalation + semiconductor earnings catalysts. Short-term momentum is strong, but with the S&P 500’s extended rally, watch for intraday profit-taking pressure.
The divergence between gold and oil is notable β oil falling while gold rising suggests safe-haven demand has not faded despite geopolitical easing. Capital is still hedging against larger uncertainties.
The yen intervention signal warrants close monitoring. If the US Treasury directly intervenes to buy yen, it could trigger cascading effects across FX markets, impacting cross-border capital flows.
β° Upcoming Events
- After-hours: SpaceX (SPCX) and AMD (AMD) earnings releases; pre-market up 2.8% and respectively
- Senate: Judiciary Committee vote on Todd Blanche’s nomination for Attorney General
- Watch: Whether the Hormuz reopening announcement materializes within hours