πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • Gold XAUUSD: $4,068.79 (+0.33%) β€” Slightly higher, intraday volatility narrowing
  • WTI Crude USOIL: $76.78 (-2.47%) β€” Continued decline, pace slowing vs prior hour
  • US Natural Gas Futures: $2.697 (-3.00%)
  • Baltic Dry Index: 2,936 (+3.27%)
  • Shanghai Gold Exchange Au T+D: Β₯884.0/g (+0.25%)
  • Shanghai Gold Exchange Ag T+D: Β₯14,410.0/kg (+1.72%)

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

1. Fed’s Bostic Strikes Hawkish Tone: Inflation Too High, No Rate Guidance

Fed’s Bostic made several important statements:

  • Inflation stance hawkish: “Economy is strong, inflation is too high”; “want to see more progress on core inflation”
  • Rate guidance: “Cannot provide rate guidance at this time, keeping an open mind”
  • Policy assessment: “Data suggests Fed policy is moderately restrictive”; “If no progress on inflation, may need to recalibrate policy”
  • Energy impact: “Energy prices are volatile, data suggests their impact can be temporarily ignored”
  • Meeting frequency: Wants to weigh pros and cons of 6 vs 8 FOMC meetings per year

Bostic’s overall tone is hawkish, emphasizing inflation remains high and policy restrictiveness is only “moderate,” implying current rate levels may be insufficient to quickly bring down inflation.

2. US June Trade Deficit Narrows to $73.3B, Imports Fall for First Time This Year

US Commerce Department released June trade data:

  • Trade deficit: $73.3B (expected $73.0B, prior $77.6B), narrowing 5.6%
  • Imports: $3,880B (prior $3,953B), first decline since start of year, across multiple sectors
  • Exports: $3,147B (prior $3,177B)

The import decline may reflect the fading effect of front-loaded inventory buildup by businesses. The narrower trade deficit is a positive contribution to Q3 GDP.

3. Anthropic Signs $10 Billion Compute Deal

Anthropic reached a $10 billion compute agreement with Volta Infra Holdings, an infrastructure startup founded just months ago, to meet growing product demand. The AI compute arms race continues to escalate.

4. US June Oil Import Prices Up 37.6% Year-over-Year

US June oil import price was $86.06/barrel, up 37.6% from $62.53 in June 2025 (May was $87.44). Despite the recent crash in international oil prices, the lag effect of import prices means US consumers and businesses still face high energy costs in the near term.

5. Bessent’s Additional Comments: Stabilizing Yen Crucial

Treasury Secretary Bessent continued his CNBC interview with new incremental comments:

  • Yen: “Stabilizing the yen is crucial”; “Japan currently faces inflation issues” (due to weak yen)
  • Japan policy: Optimistic about Japan’s policy path
  • Inflation: Core inflation is easing (Wash’s flexibility angle already reported prior hour, not repeated)

🧭 Market Assessment

Bostic’s hawkish tone contrasts subtly with Bessent’s optimism on “core inflation easing,” suggesting growing hawk-dove divisions within the Fed.

Bostic’s emphasis that policy is only “moderately restrictive” implies that if inflation data doesn’t cooperate, further tightening cannot be ruled out.

The first year-to-date decline in US June imports is a warning sign, potentially signaling slowing consumer momentum, though the narrower trade deficit benefits GDP.

WTI crude’s decline pace slowed after the prior hour’s plunge, as Bessent’s hinted Iran deal expectations are partially priced in.

Gold hovers near $4,070 in a narrow range, supported by geopolitical uncertainty and dollar weakness, but Bostic’s hawkish tone caps upside.

AI compute demand continues to surge, with Anthropic’s $10B deal showing tech giants are still accelerating infrastructure investment.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • Wednesday (8/5): US July ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, ADP Employment
  • Thursday (8/6): US Initial Jobless Claims
  • Friday (8/7): US July Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate ⭐⭐⭐⭐