πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • Spot Gold XAUUSD: $4,075.33 (+0.49%) β€” Choppy higher, spiked $10 in short order
  • WTI Crude USOIL: $76.06 (-3.38%) β€” Plunged, broke below $77
  • Spot Silver: $59.35 (+2.00%) β€” Gains extended intraday
  • Brent Crude: Below $82/bbl (-1.70%), session low at $82.05

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

1. Bessent: Iran Deal to Open Hormuz Could Come Tomorrow

US Treasury Secretary Bessent told CNBC that a deal on the Strait of Hormuz could be reached on Tuesday or Wednesday. He expects energy prices to fall and stabilize, saying “as energy prices come down, we may see a massive risk-off trade.”

However, Qatar simultaneously stated that Iran-US communication is now only through intermediaries, and Iran is toughly demanding “full control” over all inbound vessels. The diplomatic outlook remains uncertain.

2. Bessent Backs Japan’s Yen Intervention, Says Policy Follow-Through Is Key

Bessent made extensive comments on yen intervention:

  • “Honored to stand with Japan and help stabilize the situation”
  • “A stable yen is critical for the US and the entire Asian region”
  • Confident BOJ Governor will take necessary action, Japanese PM doing an excellent job
  • “If the yen depreciates, other currencies will follow” β€” implying intervention necessity
  • Fed expanding the Foreign and International Monetary Authorities repo facility is reasonable, aimed at controlling offshore market volatility
  • “Already assured European counterparts this is just reserve asset reallocation”

3. Bessent on Fed Chair Walsh: Wants to Keep Flexibility

  • Walsh wants to keep options open, every meeting should be real-time judgment
  • Will help the Fed balance growth and inflation objectives
  • “We are seeing the Fed’s adjustment process”

4. CME July Contract Volume Hits Record

CME July contracts set a new record of 27 million contracts, up 23% year-over-year. Market activity continues to climb.

🧭 Situation Assessment

The core catalyst for the crude oil crash is Bessent’s surprise comments about an Iran deal β€” if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, supply risks would ease significantly.

However, Qatar’s statement that communication is “only through intermediaries” contrasts with Bessent’s optimism, and Iran’s hardline demand for “full control” means a deal is far from sealed.

On the yen, Bessent’s remarks effectively give Japan a green light for intervention, but his emphasis on “policy follow-through” suggests forex intervention alone is insufficient β€” markets will pressure the BOJ’s September decision.

Gold’s rally is supported by both geopolitical uncertainty and a weaker dollar (suppressed by yen intervention), with silver’s larger gain reflecting dual safe-haven and industrial demand support.

Crude shorts beware: if the Iran deal fails to materialize as expected, oil prices could rebound violently.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • Tuesday (8/5): US June Factory Orders, JOLTs Job Openings
  • Wednesday (8/6): US July ISM Services PMI, ADP Employment
  • Thursday (8/7): US Initial Jobless Claims
  • Friday (8/8): US July Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate ⭐⭐⭐⭐