📰 Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-04 16:00 CST

📊 Market Snapshot

A-share close: Shanghai +0.33% (3822), Shenzhen +3.25% (13886), CSI 300 +0.54%, total turnover 2.21 trillion yuan. Semiconductor sector strong, banking stocks weak.

European markets opened higher: Germany DAX +0.45%, UK FTSE 100 +0.32%, France CAC 40 +0.57%, Euro Stoxx 600 hit record high up 0.7%.

🔥 Key News This Hour

1. Goldman Sachs: Brent to Range $80-90 Until Iran Situation Clarifies Goldman Sachs stated that Brent crude is expected to remain in the $80-90/barrel range until a new US-Iran nuclear deal is confirmed or a major attack escalation occurs. Saudi Aramco’s CEO simultaneously revealed that governments worldwide are seeking to increase oil stockpiles, and Aramco is considering developing new potential export routes.

2. Apple’s India Annual Sales Top $1 Billion for First Time Apple’s annual sales in India surpassed $1 billion for the first time in the fiscal year ending March 2026, with double-digit revenue growth. Apple continues expanding its retail presence in India, highlighting surging demand for premium electronics in the market.

3. South Korea’s KOSDAQ Surges 6%, Third Consecutive Buy-Side Circuit Breaker KOSDAQ triggered buy-side circuit breakers for three consecutive trading days for the first time in history, signaling a strong market recovery. South Korean President Lee Jae-myung stated the same day that AI is reshaping the global industrial landscape and Korea needs “bold” and “swift” investment.

4. BOK Minutes Turn Hawkish, Hinting at Further Rate Hikes Bank of Korea minutes reveal multiple members believe current rate hikes alone may be insufficient. Further action may be needed, with timing and pace of hikes primarily driven by inflation developments.

5. Former BOJ Official: US-Japan May Intervene Again if Yen Weakens Former BOJ committee member Atsushi Takeuchi stated that if the yen shows renewed weakness, Japan and the US would “definitely” conduct another joint intervention. The US and Japan already conducted joint FX intervention in late July.

6. South Korea to Establish Resource Security Fund South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy announced plans to establish an industrial resource security fund to safeguard critical minerals, expand oil and mineral reserves, and diversify crude oil imports.

7. Hezbollah Leader Nasrallah Addresses Israel-Lebanon Situation Hezbollah leader Naem Qassem criticized the Lebanese government for making “unnecessary concessions” through direct negotiations with Israel, stating that a US-Iran memorandum of understanding is the only path to Israeli withdrawal. He expressed willingness to meet with Syrian leadership at an appropriate time.

🧭 Market Assessment

Gold pulled back slightly to around $4066, but remains in a high-range consolidation pattern with significant geopolitical risk premium support.

Crude oil weakened, with Goldman’s $80-90 range forecast aligning with current Brent prices. The market awaits further clarity on the US-Iran situation.

Asian Pacific risk appetite is recovering, with Shenzhen surging 3.25% and KOSDAQ soaring 6%. Semiconductor sector sees notable capital inflows.

Hawkish BOK minutes combined with Japan’s intervention warning signal rising Asian currency tightening expectations. Monitor impact on capital flows.

Apple’s India milestone is significant but has limited short-term impact on AAPL stock; it’s more of a medium-to-long-term narrative support.

Euro Stoxx 600 hitting record highs shows global risk appetite continuing. Watch whether this momentum transmits to US equity markets ahead of the session.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

No major US economic data scheduled for today (August 4). Yesterday’s US July ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 55.6, significantly beating expectations of 54 and prior reading of 53.3, indicating accelerating US manufacturing expansion.

Key data to watch this week: US JOLTS job openings, initial jobless claims, and nonfarm payrolls report.