📰 Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-04 15:00 CST

📰 Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-04 15:00 CST

📊 Market Snapshot

Gold holding above 4060, trading in a narrow range with intraday high of 4069.33. Crude oil pulled back to around 79, after touching 80.03 earlier.

🔥 Key News This Hour

1. Saudi Aramco CEO: Geopolitical Crisis Causing Historically Largest Crude Supply Disruption

Saudi Aramco CEO made multiple significant statements this hour:

• Global losses from geopolitical crisis exceed 26 billion barrels of crude, impacting multiple key sectors
• Peak crisis losses reached 11 million barrels/day, with Asian crude imports down ~6 million bpd
• Hormuz Strait closure caused weekly losses of 100 million barrels
• If strait reopened today, replenishing depleted inventories at 2.1 million bpd would take up to 18 months
• Saudi Aramco mitigated losses via east-west pipeline and global inventories, reducing net loss to ~1.8 billion barrels
• Maintaining crude exports at ~5 million bpd, utilizing all export routes including Mandeb Strait and Suez Canal
• Global refining system under severe stress; any major refinery outage could worsen energy supply
• Red Sea threats have not affected export volumes; facility attacks have no material operational or financial impact

2. Iran’s President: Will Defend Territory but Not Seek to Expand War

Iranian President Pezeshkhian stated Iran will defend its territory but does not seek to continue or expand war. Trump said Monday that US-Iran negotiations are ongoing, but Tehran denied any negotiation plans. Tensions remain high but have not escalated further for now.

3. Bank of Japan: Continuing JGB Tapering, Long-Term Rates Increasingly Market-Driven

The BOJ issued multiple statements:

• Long-term rates increasingly determined by market forces as JGB purchases are reduced
• Rising underlying inflation and fundamental economic changes may be driving recent long-term rate increases
• Continuing to suppress JGB term premium, but overall JGB holdings remain substantial
• Domestic investors (banks, individuals) gradually increasing JGB holdings, but portfolio adjustment takes time

4. China A-Shares: CPO Sector Limit-Up Wave, Turnover Exceeds 2 Trillion Yuan

A-share CPO concept stocks surged collectively, with Lianxun Instruments hitting 20CM limit-up, Yongding Shares and Dongshan Precision also limit-up. Tianshu Communication, Zhongji Innolight, and Xinyi Sheng all gained over 11%. Shanghai-Shenzhen turnover exceeded 2 trillion yuan, up over 190 billion from the previous day. Zhongji Innolight led with 4.651 billion yuan in net institutional inflow.

5. SoftBank Q1: Revenue 1.81 Trillion Yen, Net Profit 155.07 Billion Yen

SoftBank reported Q1 results with revenue of 1.81 trillion yen and net profit of 155.07 billion yen.

6. US July Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: 85K Expected, Unemployment Rate Likely Stable

Economists forecast 85K new jobs in July (vs. 57K in June). Declining labor force participation may cushion the impact of slowing employment. Unemployment rate expected to remain stable. Data to be released later this week.

7. BP CEO: Increasing Aviation Fuel and Diesel Production

BP CEO stated the company is increasing aviation fuel and diesel output due to tighter supply compared to gasoline. BP also expects 2026 fuel margins to be affected by Middle East situation and related policy actions.

🧭 Assessment

The scale of crude supply disruption is unprecedented — Saudi Aramco CEO’s extensive comments reveal the global energy supply chain is under far greater stress than markets may have priced in, with 26 billion barrels in losses足以 altering the supply-demand balance.

Oil prices pulling back below $80 suggests the market has largely priced in supply disruptions, with short-term focus shifting to demand-side and inventory replenishment pace.

Iran’s president clearly signaling no expansion of war provides a阶段性 de-escalation signal, but the US-Iran negotiation gap keeps uncertainty elevated.

BOJ’s firm commitment to JGB tapering establishes a rising long-term yield trend, creating external pressure on global bond markets — watch for JGB yield spillover effects on US Treasuries.

A-share CPO sector continues strengthening on capital flows, with 2 trillion yuan turnover signaling sustained market heat, but beware of short-term overheating risks.

This week’s US non-farm payrolls data is the next key variable — the 85K expectation, while above June’s 57K, still represents a weak labor market; a miss could amplify recession concerns.

⏰ Upcoming Key Events

• Today 22:00 CST — Large EUR/USD and USD/JPY FX options expiring, 4 strike prices with over $1 billion each; watch for FX volatility
• This Week — US July Non-Farm Payrolls data (exact time TBC)
• Ongoing — Middle East geopolitical developments, Hormuz Strait navigation status