📊 Market Snapshot

  • Gold XAUUSD: $4,064.39 (-0.22% on the day)
  • WTI Crude USOIL: $79.53 (-1.02% on the day)

🔥 Key News This Hour

  1. Fed’s Williams: Optimistic on Inflation Easing NY Fed President Williams expressed optimism that inflation pressures will gradually ease. If inflation does not return to 2% as expected, the Fed will act accordingly. He noted market pricing but said the Fed does not need to endorse market levels.

  2. Iran and Oman Close to Hormuz Strait Navigation Deal US and Iranian officials revealed that Iran and Oman are close to reaching an agreement on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Under the deal, vessels entering the Persian Gulf would use a channel near the Iranian coast. The news pushed oil prices lower.

  3. Saudi Aramco Q2 Profit Up 33% Saudi Aramco reported Q2 adjusted net income of 125.2 billion Saudi riyals, benefiting from war-driven oil price surges. The company said it will continue using its East-West pipeline to ensure crude exports, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.

  4. Toyota Announces 1 Trillion Yen Buyback Toyota announced a 1 trillion yen (~$6.3 billion) stock buyback plan and raised its full-year operating profit forecast by over 10% to 3.4 trillion yen. However, shares fell 3% as the market weighed the 510 billion yen profit impact from Middle East tensions.

  5. BHP Union Strike to Continue Aug 8-9 BHP Port Combined Union confirmed strike action will continue on August 8 and 9. However, significant progress has been made with committee assistance, with a path forward identified for the coming weeks.

  6. DeepSeek V4 Flash Faces Capacity Shortage DeepSeek V4 Flash experienced performance degradation and errors due to unprecedented traffic volume, reflecting surging AI demand.

  7. Magnitude 4.4 Earthquake in Kumamoto, Japan — TSMC Fab Recovered A magnitude 4.4 earthquake struck Kumamoto Prefecture with a very shallow epicenter. TSMC stated its Kumamoto fab has fully recovered.

  8. Korean Stocks Plunge ~40% in 27 Trading Days — Market Trust Collapsing Korean equities suffered a severe sell-off with investor trust crumbling. Even with Samsung and SK Hynix benefiting from AI demand, investors may choose to exit the Korean market.

🧭 Situation Assessment

The Hormuz Strait navigation deal news pulled oil prices off highs, narrowing the geopolitical risk premium, though the agreement is not yet finalized and uncertainty remains.

Fed Williams’ tone leans dovish — optimistic on the inflation path but with flexibility, suggesting a September rate cut remains on the table.

Saudi Aramco’s 33% Q2 profit surge validates oil sector earnings resilience during geopolitical conflicts, while also indicating that market concerns about Hormuz disruption are already partially priced into oil.

Toyota’s massive buyback and profit upgrade would typically be bullish, yet shares fell 3%, showing that Middle East risk premium pricing is spreading to Japanese automakers.

Korea’s stock market collapse warrants attention — if Asian risk sentiment continues to deteriorate, it could spill over into US-listed Asia-exposed names.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • 20:30 US June Trade Balance
  • 22:00 US June JOLTs Job Openings
  • 22:00 US June Factory Orders
  • TBD SpaceX Q2 Earnings