📰 Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-04 10:00 CST

📊 Market Snapshot

Gold trading in a narrow range, intraday spread only ~$27 (4042-4069), with bulls and bears wrestling around 4060. Crude rebounded ~1% from the 78.3 low to above 79.5, as Middle East risk premium persists.

🔥 Key News This Hour

1. US-Iran Talks “Rashomon” Continues Trump claimed negotiations with Iran have started and the Strait of Hormuz could reopen “by tomorrow at the latest,” warning this is the “last chance” for a deal. However, Tehran publicly denied any talks are underway. Gulf analysts note Iran is pursuing a “gradual escalation” strategy, expanding threats to Middle East trade routes and energy infrastructure.

2. 25 States Sue Trump’s New Tariffs 25 Democrat-led states filed a lawsuit challenging Trump’s new round of global tariffs covering 60 trading partners as “unauthorized and illegal,” seeking to suspend enforcement and refund collected duties. This is the largest-scale legal challenge to the tariff policy to date.

3. Iranian Drones Strike Kuwaiti Military Base According to Israel’s i24NEWS, several Iranian one-way attack drones struck a military base in northern Kuwait on Monday night. Risk of Middle East conflict spillover continues to rise.

4. WuXi AppTec Hits Daily Limit, H1 Profit Exceeds 10 Billion Yuan WuXi AppTec’s A-shares hit the daily limit with nearly 5 billion yuan in turnover. The company’s H1 net profit surpassed 10 billion yuan, with a comprehensive upward revision of full-year guidance. HK-listed WuXi AppTec surged over 11%, driving the CRO sector higher — Pharmaron +7%, Asymchem +6%.

5. South Korea Pledges to Ease Market Volatility South Korean Finance Minister Koo Yoon-chul stated he will work to ease stock market volatility, with the ministry moving quickly to implement measures limiting the use of leveraged single-stock ETFs. South Korea is also reforming property taxes, with higher-value and non-owner-occupied properties facing higher tax burdens.

6. Fed’s FIMA Tool Becomes Key Yen Stabilizer Japan gained US support to stem the yen’s decline, with the Fed’s FIMA repo facility serving as a key buffer. However, institutions warn the tool’s capacity is limited ($60 billion ceiling), and may be insufficient if markets test the resolve of both governments again.

🧭 Assessment

US-Iran negotiation signals are contradictory — Washington releases optimistic signals while Tehran publicly denies; both sides are vying for narrative control, and actual progress remains doubtful.

The timeline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz is uncertain; crude oil risk premium is unlikely to fade in the short term, with 79-80 USD being a key resistance zone for WTI.

The 25-state tariff lawsuit is a significant legal variable — if courts grant an injunction, it would substantially ease global trade uncertainty, though the litigation cycle may be protracted.

A-share semiconductor, CPO, and computing power rental sectors are rallying across the board, reflecting sustained market bets on the technology self-reliance thesis.

WuXi AppTec’s earnings beat boosts the CRO sector, but attention is needed on the potential impact of the US Biosecurity Act’s subsequent developments on the sector.

No major US economic data scheduled for today; market focus is on the evolution of the US-Iran situation and tariff lawsuit developments.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

No major US economic data releases scheduled for today (August 4). Recap of yesterday’s key releases:

• US July ISM Manufacturing PMI: 55.6 (expected 54, prior 53.3), highest since 2022
• Eurozone July Manufacturing PMI Final: 51.9 (slightly below flash estimate of 52)
• UK July Manufacturing PMI Final: 51.9 (significantly below flash estimate of 52.8)
• Switzerland July CPI YoY: 0.4%, in line with expectations