📰 Morning Briefing (00:00-08:00) | 2026-08-04

📊 Market Overview

US markets rallied overnight with S&P up 1.48% to 7600 and Dow up 1.32%. Gold held steady above 4050 in narrow range; crude oil slightly higher.

🔥 Key Overnight News

1. US July ISM Manufacturing PMI surges to 55.6, well above 54 expected Highest since 2022, up from 53.3 prior. Production and employment both improved, marking the fastest manufacturing expansion in four years. US July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final at 53.9, slightly above estimate. Strong data and geopolitical inflation concerns put pressure on bonds.

2. Fed September rate hike probability rises to 67.2% Per CME FedWatch: 32.8% chance rates held unchanged in September, 67.2% chance of a 25bp hike. NY Fed President Williams expressed optimism on inflation cooling but stressed decisive action if target is missed. Former Fed economist Sahm warned that distorted data could lead to Fed misjudgments.

3. Trump claims Iran negotiations underway, Hormuz “could reopen tomorrow” Trump stated negotiations have started and warned this is the “last chance,” but Tehran publicly denied. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed to have intercepted and struck a US MQ9 drone over the Hormuz Strait. Middle East tensions persist.

4. Trump blasts oil majors for “making too much” ExxonMobil and Chevron combined Q2 earnings of $29 billion; Trump demanded profits be returned to the public and gas prices lowered.

5. Amazon down ~2% after-hours; Bezos sells $4.07 billion in stock Amazon founder Bezos executed a large-scale reduction in holdings, pressuring after-hours stock price.

6. Deutsche Bank reaffirms gold year-end target of $4,600 Deutsche Bank report indicates the gold “explosive rally” that began in 2024 is far from over, still in an “explosive phase.” However, SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 1.141 tons to 1,005.874 tons.

7. TSMC Kumamoto Fab 1 resumes normal operations After earthquake inspection confirmed building safety; equipment adjustment delays resolved, factory back to normal.

8. South Korea July CPI falls to 2.8%, below 3.0% expected CPI YoY 2.8% (prior 3.2%), MoM -0.2% (expected 0.1%). Bank of Korea resumed gold purchases for the first time in 13 years.

9. European manufacturing PMI overall soft France July manufacturing PMI final at 49.8 (contraction), Germany 52.2, Eurozone 51.9, UK 51.9. Germany June retail sales MoM -1.1%, well below expectations.

10. OpenAI says next-gen AI model low-cost, high-performance; Alibaba releases Qwen3.8 Tech headlines: OpenAI previews new model with reduced costs and improved performance; Alibaba releases new base model Qwen3.8.

🧭 Assessment

US manufacturing PMI at 55.6 significantly beats expectations; combined with hot jobs and inflation data, a Fed September 25bp rate hike has become the baseline scenario (67.2% probability).

However, former officials like Sahm warn macro data may be distorted — “resilience” may hide statistical illusions, and the Fed’s policy path still carries misjudgment risk.

The Hormuz Strait situation is the largest current uncertainty — Trump unilaterally claims negotiations while Iran denies and shoots down a US drone; both escalation and de-escalation scenarios remain possible.

Gold hovers high around 4050 with Deutsche Bank’s year-end $4,600 target intact, but ETF holdings are starting to outflow — short-term profit-taking pressure exists.

The overnight US market rally reflects optimistic pricing of “strong economy + no recession,” but if the Hormuz situation deteriorates and pushes oil prices higher, inflation expectations could reverse again, constraining Fed rate-cut space.

Today’s focus: US June trade balance, JOLTs job openings, and factory orders data will further test the economic resilience narrative.

📅 Today’s Key Calendar