📊 Market Overview

  • Spot Gold XAUUSD: $4,036.29 ↓-0.18% (Day High $4,082.90 / Day Low $4,019.11)
  • WTI Crude USOIL: $78.54 ↓-7.64% (Day High $79.97 / Day Low $77.28)
  • US equities rally: S&P 500 +1.0% (highest since July 16), Dow +1.3%, Nasdaq +1.38%
  • European stocks strong: France CAC40 +1.6% (highest since Feb 26), Euro Stoxx 50 +1.2% (highest since July 6)

🔥 Key News This Hour

  1. US July ISM Manufacturing PMI comes in at 55.6, highest since 2022 — Far exceeding expectations of 54 and prior 53.3, driven by strong demand, surging output, and improving employment. Manufacturing expansion at fastest pace in over four years.

  2. WTI crude oil plunges 7.64% to $78.54 — Iran claims Hormuz Strait talks have entered a “final phase,” triggering a sharp unwinding of geopolitical risk premium.

  3. White House to host AI companies Tuesday to review AI framework — OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic among companies invited, signaling push for AI regulatory framework.

  4. Tech giants rally across the board — Meta +6%, Microsoft +5%, Google A +3.7%, Oracle +4.6%; Boeing +5.3% (BNP Paribas upgrade); BNP Paribas raises Western Digital target from $1,050 to $1,275.

  5. Japanese authorities likely spent $34 billion intervening in FX markets last Friday — A monthly record, marking the closest US-Japan monetary policy coordination in 15 years.

  6. Fed’s Williams optimistic on inflation回落 — But warns of decisive rate hikes if偏离目标; former Fed economist cautions that data distortion could lead to policy misjudgment.

  7. Deutsche Bank reaffirms gold year-end target of $4,600 — Believes the “explosive” gold rally that began in 2024 is far from over.

🧭 Situation Assessment

US July ISM Manufacturing PMI surged to 55.6, the fastest expansion in four years, with strong economic fundamentals supporting a broad equity rally.

The 7.64% crude oil plunge is the most notable event this hour, as Iran signals Hormuz Strait talks have entered a “final phase,” rapidly unwinding geopolitical risk premium.

Caution warranted: Whether the Hormuz Strait can fully resume free navigation remains uncertain, and oil price volatility may intensify in the near term.

Fed internal divisions are emerging: Williams is optimistic on inflation but threatens rate hikes, while a former Fed economist warns that data distortion could lead to policy misjudgment. Wash’s “wait-and-see” stance has doubled tightening effects in the bond market.

Japan’s record $34 billion intervention highlights US-Japan interest rate differential pressure; future yen trajectory still depends on the Fed’s policy path.

Tuesday’s White House AI meeting warrants close attention, as AI regulatory framework developments could impact tech stock valuations.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • Aug 4 (Tuesday): White House AI company meeting; US June JOLTS Job Openings
  • Aug 5 (Wednesday): US July ISM Services PMI
  • Aug 6 (Thursday): US Initial Jobless Claims
  • Aug 7 (Friday): US July Non-Farm Payrolls Report (key data this week)
  • Ongoing: Hormuz Strait talks progress, Japan FX intervention follow-through