πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • Gold (XAUUSD) $4,028.67 | -0.37% ↓ | Day high $4,082 β†’ low $4,019
  • WTI Crude (USOIL) $78.06 | -8.21% ↓ | Plunged from ~$85 to $78

Gold retreated from an intraday high of $4,082, briefly breaking below $4,020. Shanghai silver futures fell 2% to 13,820 yuan/kg.

WTI crude crashed over 8%, the largest single-day decline in recent weeks, as geopolitical risk premium unwound.

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

1. Oil Plunges: Iran Says Hormuz Strait Talks in “Final Stage”

Iran indicated that Strait of Hormuz navigation talks are ongoing and have entered the final stage, sharply reducing geopolitical risk premium. WTI crude fell over 8% in a single day. However, Israel stated it will not withdraw from Gaza positions, suggesting Middle East tensions could resurface.

2. Microsoft Up 25% in 3 Days, Amazon Crosses $3 Trillion Market Cap

Microsoft (MSFT) extended intraday gains to over 5%, with a cumulative 25% rally over three days. Amazon (AMZN) hit an all-time high, with its market cap exceeding $3 trillion for the first time, up about 17% in the past week.

3. US July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final at 53.9, Slightly Above Expectations

Final reading 53.9 vs. 53.8 expected and prior. Manufacturing maintains modest expansion. ISM Manufacturing PMI scheduled for release at 22:00.

4. Deutsche Bank: Gold Still in “Explosive Phase,” $4,600 Year-End Target

Deutsche Bank’s report argues the explosive gold rally that began in 2024 is far from over, reaffirming a $4,600 year-end target.

5. JPMorgan Ramps Up Housing Investment, $750 Billion by 2035

Increased by over $200 billion from previous plans, deepening commitment to U.S. housing.

6. Belgium’s July LNG Imports Entirely Dependent on Russia

Middle East war sharply reduced supplies to Europe, leaving Belgium fully dependent on Russian LNG imports last month.

🧭 Market Assessment

Oil’s 8% crash is today’s most significant market signal β€” Hormuz Strait talks entering the “final stage” has substantially unwound the geopolitical risk premium.

However, Israel’s refusal to withdraw from Gaza means a full Middle East de-escalation is premature.

Microsoft’s 25% three-day rally combined with Amazon’s $3 trillion milestone shows tech giants continue to lead the equity rally, with risk appetite clearly rebounding.

Gold is weakening under the dual pressure of falling oil and rising risk appetite, but Deutsche Bank’s $4,600 target indicates institutions remain bullish on gold’s medium-to-long-term outlook.

Japanese authorities may have deployed $34 billion in FX intervention last Friday, a monthly record, with U.S.-Japan monetary policy coordination at its tightest in 15 years.

Fed officials are speaking frequently: Williams is optimistic on inflation but warns of rate hikes if targets are missed.

A former Fed economist warns that data distortion could lead to policy miscalculation.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • 22:00 β€” US July ISM Manufacturing PMI (imminent/just released)
  • This week: US July Non-Farm Payrolls (Friday)