πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • Gold (XAUUSD): $4,049.34 β–Ό0.14% (range $4,042-$4,083)
  • WTI Crude (USOIL): $77.84 β–Ό8.46% (range $77.28-$79.97)
  • S&P 500: $7,489.80 β–Ό0.70% (last Friday’s close)
  • US Stock Futures: Higher on the first trading day of the month, focus shifts to earnings

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

1. WTI Crude Plunges 8.5% as Hormuz Strait Talks Show Breakthrough Signals Iran claims Hormuz Strait negotiations are still ongoing and have entered the “final stage.” International oil prices fell sharply on Monday, though full restoration of free navigation remains uncertain.

2. Kuwait’s July Oil Output Hits Highest Since Middle East War Began Supply-side easing continues, with Kuwait ramping up production to its highest level since the war erupted, adding to downward pressure on oil prices.

3. Six Saudi Empty Supertankers Reroute to Southern Africa Vessel tracking data shows six Saudi-flagged empty supertankers changed course in the Gulf of Aden, heading toward southern Africa. One is destined for Gibraltar. The convoy sailed in international waters off Somalia β€” suggesting shifting expectations about strait navigation.

4. NY Fed President Williams: Optimistic on Inflation, Will Hike if Needed The Fed’s “No. 3” official noted inflation remains above target but is optimistic about gradual easing of price pressures, while drawing a hawkish line in the sand.

5. Japan Likely Spent $34B on Friday Defending Yen, Monthly Record The US and Japan are conducting their closest monetary policy coordination in 15 years. After a massive intervention on Thursday, authorities may have deployed another $34B on Friday β€” a single-month record.

6. WH Economic Adviser Hassett: Fed Chair Warsh Moving in Positive Direction Hassett expressed respect for Fed independence, calling recent inflation reports “very strong.” Former Fed economist Sam warns that macro data distortion could lead to Fed miscalculation.

7. US Stock Futures Higher, Focus Shifts to Earnings and Oil Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matt Orton said this week’s dense earnings releases will dominate market sentiment.

8. JPMorgan Warns: US Stock “De-watering” Enters Second Half, Not Time to Bottom-Fish Tech stock deleveraging is nearing an end, with valuation premiums at six-year lows. However, oil price volatility and inflation clouds persist, and Treasury market turbulence could amplify equity swings.

🧭 Assessment

WTI crude plunges 8.5% to $77.84, primarily driven by substantive de-escalation signals from Hormuz Strait negotiations.

Iran’s claim of talks entering the “final stage,” combined with Kuwait’s production increase and Saudi tanker rerouting, sends a clear supply-side easing signal.

If strait navigation resumes, oil prices may continue testing the $75 support level in the near term.

Fed signals are contradictory: Williams is optimistic on inflation, but a former Fed economist warns that data distortion could lead to miscalculation.

Japan’s $34B yen intervention sets a monthly record β€” unprecedented monetary policy coordination, but sustainability remains questionable.

JPMorgan remains cautious on US equities β€” tech deleveraging is near completion, but oil price volatility and inflation clouds haven’t cleared. Bottom-fishing still requires patience.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • August NFP, CPI, PCE releases
  • OPEC/IEA monthly reports
  • USDA supply and demand report
  • Continued monitoring of Middle East situation and China economic data