πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • Spot Gold: $4,054.36, down 0.27% intraday (open $4,082.82, high $4,082.90, low $4,046.62)
  • WTI Crude: $78.91, plunging 7.21% (prev close ~$85.04), opened at $77.80, slight bounce faded with no stabilization

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

1. BOJ Data Confirms ~$34B Intervention on Friday

Bank of Japan account data indicates Friday’s FX intervention totaled approximately $34 billion, building on the coordinated US-Japan action from Thursday. USD/JPY fell to around 155.2, the lowest since May. Analysts note the joint intervention carries significant weight, with yen shorts partially retreating.

2. Lebanese Delegation Arrives in Rome for Israel Talks

A Lebanese delegation has arrived in Rome for talks with Israel. The US Embassy in Lebanon stated there is a fundamental difference between reaching an agreement and executing one, with substantial technical work needed to ensure civilian safety. The US hopes for a clear mechanism before proceeding to the next phase.

3. SHFE and INE to Launch Arbitrage Orders on August 24

The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced arbitrage orders effective August 24, initially applicable to copper, gold, rebar, and natural rubber futures. The Shanghai International Energy Exchange will launch simultaneously, initially for crude oil futures, aiming to improve market efficiency.

4. MOFCOM: LG Energy Solution Files Section 337 Complaint

Korea’s LG Energy Solution and LG Energy Solution Arizona have filed a Section 337 investigation request with the US ITC regarding certain secondary cylindrical batteries, battery components, and products containing such components, potentially affecting Chinese export companies.

🧭 Situation Assessment

With the $34B intervention confirmed, USD/JPY still fell to the 155 area, suggesting intervention slowed but did not reverse yen depreciation β€” the market is testing the BOJ’s resolve.

WTI crude showed zero rebound after the 7% plunge in the 17:00 hour, drifting from $79 to $78.9 β€” no bid-side support, recession trade remains dominant.

Gold continues to slip from $4,060 to $4,054, consistent with UBS’s short-term bearish target of $3,850, as profit-taking continues.

Tonight’s 22:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI is the critical data point to validate the recession trade: a miss below the expected 54 could trigger further oil breakdown and accelerate gold’s move toward $3,850.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • Today 21:45 US July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (⭐⭐⭐) prior 53.8
  • Today 22:00 US July ISM Manufacturing PMI (⭐⭐⭐⭐) expected 54, prior 53.3