π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-03 17:00 CST
WTI crude oil plunges 7% to $79, global manufacturing PMIs weaken across the board, stoking recession fears. UK manufacturing PMI falls to a four-month low of 51.9, France re-enters contraction at 49.8. JPMorgan warns it's not time to buy the dip in US stocks, UBS sees gold pulling back to $3,850 short-term. Focus turns to US ISM Manufacturing PMI tonight, expected at 54.
π Market Snapshot
- Spot Gold (XAUUSD): $4,060.06, down 0.41% intraday (open $4,082.82, high $4,082.90, low $4,047.44)
- WTI Crude (USOIL): $79.02, plunging 7.07% (previous close ~$85.04), opened at $77.80 and recovered to $79.02, high $79.97, low $77.28
π₯ Key News This Hour
1. European Manufacturing Slowdown β UK Hits Four-Month Low
UK July Manufacturing PMI final dropped from 52.8 to 51.9, the ninth consecutive month of expansion but at the slowest pace in four months. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI final came in at 51.9 (slightly below the expected 52). France’s final reading fell to 49.8, re-entering contraction. Germany’s 52.2 met expectations. Italy declined from 52.2 to 51.3, while Spain edged up to 50.2.
2. German Retail Sales Significantly Miss Expectations
Germany’s June real retail sales fell -1.1% MoM (expected -0.1%), with the annual rate at -0.2% (previous +1.8%), signaling notable weakness in consumer spending.
3. China’s July Manufacturing PMI Cools
RatingDog Manufacturing PMI declined from 51.7 to 50.9, with the pace of expansion slowing noticeably.
4. JPMorgan Warns: Not Time to Buy the Dip in US Stocks
JPMorgan notes that tech stock deleveraging is nearing its end and valuation premiums have fallen to six-year lows. However, oil price volatility and inflation concerns persist, and Treasury market volatility could amplify equity swings β making now an inopportune time to enter.
5. UBS Gold Outlook: Short-Term Pullback to $3,850, Long-Term Target $5,200
UBS projects gold will climb to $5,200 per ounce by June 2027, but warns of a potential short-term pullback to around $3,850. Gold has already retreated from $4,082 to $4,060, aligning with this view.
π§ Market Assessment
WTI crude oil crashed 7% in a single day, falling from around $85 to $79 β an extremely rare move that likely reflects deteriorating global demand prospects. With European manufacturing collectively slowing, China’s PMI cooling, and German retail data missing badly, recession fears are mounting rapidly.
Gold’s retreat from $4,082 to $4,060 is consistent with UBS’s short-term call for a pullback to $3,850, suggesting short-term profit-taking may be underway.
Market focus now shifts clearly to tonight’s US PMI data: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final at 21:45 and ISM Manufacturing PMI at 22:00 (expected 54). Against the backdrop of an oil crash and weakening global PMIs, a miss on ISM would further fuel recession trading.
JPMorgan’s stance that tech deleveraging is near its end but the dip is not yet buyable, combined with the oil plunge and global PMI weakness, keeps short-term risk appetite under pressure. Caution is warranted as safe-haven sentiment could spread.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- Today 21:45 US July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (βββ) Previous 53.8
- Today 22:00 US July ISM Manufacturing PMI (ββββ) Expected 54, Previous 53.3