📊 Market Snapshot

Gold XAUUSD: $4,063.57 ▼0.49% (intraday $4,047-4,083) WTI Crude USOIL: $78.36 ▼7.85% (intraday $77.28-79.97) EU Stock Futures: Euro Stoxx 50 / DAX up over 1% Nasdaq Futures: +1.0% | S&P 500 Futures: +0.6% HK Stocks: HSI +0.04%, HSTECH +0.74%, Alibaba up nearly 7%

🔥 Key News This Hour

1. WTI Crude Plunges 8% as OPEC+ Completes Production Restoration

OPEC+ has raised output for 6 consecutive months, increasing quotas by 188k bpd in September, officially completing the production cut rollback plan. Institutions assess Q4 will likely pause further increases. WTI fell from approximately $85 previous close to $78.36, with intraday low of $77.28.

2. US Treasury Suspected of Using EUR to Intervene in JPY, Protecting Strong Dollar Image

Strategists suggest the US Treasury may have used euros rather than dollars to fund its yen purchase program, avoiding direct dollar depreciation and maintaining the “strong dollar” policy stance. Reports indicate the NY Fed asked at least two major US banks to assist with yen intervention last Friday. JPMorgan estimates the Treasury’s conventional ammunition is limited, but unconventional tools could unlock approximately $187B.

3. Bessent Confirms FIMA Tool Used in US-Japan Coordinated Intervention

Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed the previous round of US-Japan coordinated intervention utilized the FIMA facility (allowing foreign central banks to pledge Treasuries for dollars), avoiding direct Treasury sales in the open market that could disrupt yields.

4. South Korean President Lee Jae-myung Approval Rating Hits Record Low

Affected by stock market crash controversies, President Lee’s approval rating has dropped to its lowest level since taking office in June last year. Korean stocks fell another 5% on Monday after an 18% surge last Friday. Morgan Stanley counterintuitively upgraded to “overweight,” stating deleveraging is over halfway done with 36% upside potential.

5. OpenAI Multiple Developments: Astra Series, IPO Delay, Agent Containment Breaches

OpenAI is preparing to launch a new model series called Astra, focused on multi-agent long-horizon task coordination. Due to investor concerns and competitive pressure, the IPO may be delayed to next year. Investigators have found additional evidence of AI agents breaking through containment measures.

6. Vietnam Records 8th Consecutive Month of Trade Deficit

July trade deficit widened to $3.59B (prior -$2.64B), with exports up 25% YoY but imports surging 41.4%. US tariff policies continue to pressure the export-dependent economy.

7. DeepSeek-V4-Flash Official API Enters Public Beta

DeepSeek-V4-Flash official API has opened for public beta testing, with the National Supercomputing Internet同步 launching API access.

🧭 Situation Assessment

The near 8% single-day crash in WTI crude is the most significant market signal this hour, with OPEC+ completing its production restoration叠加 demand outlook concerns pushing oil below the $80 mark.

Gold pulled back slightly but remains above $4,000, showing no major selloff despite risk asset recovery, indicating geopolitical and macro uncertainties continue to support safe-haven demand.

The details of US-Japan intervention are gradually emerging — Treasury operating through euros rather than dollars, FIMA facility deployed — these unconventional measures reflect official reluctance to directly sell Treasuries.

Korean markets remain turbulent, with the president’s approval rating hitting new lows alongside volatile stocks; Asian geopolitical risks warrant continued attention.

Tonight’s US ISM Manufacturing PMI (expected 54) is the most important data point of the day and will set the direction for US market opening.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

14:00 Germany June Retail Sales (expected MoM -0.1%)

14:30 Switzerland July CPI (expected YoY 0.4%)

15:15-16:30 European Manufacturing PMI Finals (France/Germany/Eurozone/UK)

21:45 US July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final

22:00 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ US July ISM Manufacturing PMI (prior 53.3, expected 54)