π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-03 12:00 CST
WTI crude crashes 7.6% to $78.5 on OPEC+ supply hike and Italian interception of Russian shadow fleet tanker; A-shares down 0.59% at noon, semis weak; Cuba national grid shut down; DeepSeek-V4-Flash API enters public beta.
π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-03 12:00 CST
π Market Snapshot
| Asset | Latest | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Gold XAUUSD | 4065.17 | -0.53% β |
| WTI Crude USOIL | 78.54 | -7.64% β |
Crude oil suffered a sharp selloff today, with WTI dropping nearly 8% from highs near 79.9 to around 78.5. Gold pulled back slightly but remains above 4050.
In Chinese futures, fuel oil fell over 4%, SC crude down nearly 3%, iron ore broke below 700 yuan to a new low. A-shares closed the morning session lower, with the Shanghai Composite down 0.59%, semiconductors and electronic chemicals weak.
π₯ Key News This Hour
1. β½ WTI Crude Plunges 7.6% as OPEC+ Completes Production Restoration
OPEC+ has increased production for 6 consecutive months, raising quotas by 188k bpd in September. Institutions judge a pause likely in Q4, but the short-term supply shock has pressured prices. Italy’s navy intercepting a sanctioned Russian “shadow fleet” tanker in the Mediterranean added further geopolitical uncertainty.
2. π¨πΊ Cuba National Power Grid Shuts Down
Cuba’s national power company announced the entire power system has shut down, plunging the country into blackout. This is one of Cuba’s most severe power crises in recent years.
3. π± Global Smartphone Revenue Hits Record in Q2
Counterpoint reports Q2 2026 global smartphone revenue grew 7% YoY to a record $109 billion. Volume growth slowed but premiumization continued.
4. π€ DeepSeek-V4-Flash API Public Beta Launches
DeepSeek-V4-Flash official API entered public beta, with the National Supercomputing Internet going live simultaneously. Domestic GPU makers Biren and Metax completed Day0 adaptation.
5. π°π· Korean Markets Crash 5% Again
After Friday’s record 18% surge, Korean stocks plummeted 5% on Monday with foreign investors selling over 1 trillion won in the morning. Morgan Stanley upgraded to “overweight,” saying deleveraging is over halfway done with 36% upside potential.
6. π΄ Yen Intervention Expectations Rise
Trump acknowledged US participation in last week’s yen intervention, calling it a “signal of friendship.” JPMorgan estimates Treasury’s available ammunition is limited but unconventional measures could unlock $187 billion. Japan may act again today.
π§ Assessment
Today’s crude oil crash is the result of multiple converging factors β OPEC+ continued supply increases, Italian interception of a Russian shadow fleet tanker adding uncertainty, and a weakening global demand outlook.
WTI has broken below $79; if OPEC+ pauses hikes in Q4 as expected, it may provide short-term support, but downside momentum remains strong.
On the yen, US-Japan joint intervention signals are clear, short positions are at their highest since 2007, and unwinding could accelerate yen rebound.
Korean equities alternating between surges and crashes reflects ongoing violent leveraged capital battles. Morgan Stanley’s optimistic call is a contrarian play.
On the Fed, Warsh’s proposal to reduce meetings to 6 per year, combined with multiple asset managers warning away from long-term Treasuries, keeps inflation-fighting credibility concerns alive.
Tonight’s US July ISM Manufacturing PMI at 22:00 is the day’s most important data point, expected at 54 vs. prior 53.3. A beat strengthens the dollar; a miss amplifies recession fears.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- 14:00 π©πͺ Germany June Retail Sales MoM (est. -0.1%)
- 14:30 π¨π Switzerland July CPI YoY (est. 0.4%)
- 16:00 πͺπΊ Eurozone July Manufacturing PMI Final (est. 52.0)
- 16:30 π¬π§ UK July Manufacturing PMI Final (est. 52.8)
- 21:45 πΊπΈ US July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final
- 22:00 πΊπΈ US July ISM Manufacturing PMI (est. 54.0, prior 53.3) ββββ