📰 Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-03 11:00 CST

📰 Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-03 11:00 CST

📊 Market Snapshot

Gold pulling back slightly, still holding above 4050. Crude oil crashed — Trump announced US-Iran talks restart + Hormuz Strait deal, geopolitical premium evaporating rapidly.

🔥 Key News This Hour

1. Trump Announces US-Iran Talks Restart, Oil Crashes Trump announced US-Iran negotiations will restart, with a Hormuz Strait deal already in place. WTI crude plummeted 7.7% to $78.5 as geopolitical risk premium sharply unwound. Gold bullish sentiment surged to 85%, showing risk-off sentiment remains elevated.

2. Japan FX Intervention Alert Escalates Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama declined to comment on whether intervention occurred today; Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara stated Japan “will not hesitate to take further FX action if necessary.” JPMorgan analysis shows US Treasury’s firepower to support JPY is limited, but one unconventional tool could unlock $187B. JPY short positions at highest level since 2007.

3. Alibaba Releases Qwen 3.8-MAX Model Alibaba released Qwen 3.8-MAX AI model with 2.4 trillion parameters, claiming performance on par with Anthropic’s top models. MiniMax also open-sourced H3 video model same day. US-China AI arms race continues to intensify.

4. China-HK Regulators Deepen Cooperation CSRC and SFC jointly announced new measures to deepen market cooperation, covering IPOs, index collaboration, futures products, and ETFs. CSRC Chairman Wu Qing announced plans to expand cross-border securities professional qualification recognition. HK-listed RMB treasury futures launched.

5. Korean Stock Market Crashes 5% Again Korean stocks fell 5% Monday morning, with foreign investors selling over 1 trillion KRW. Profit-taking after Friday’s record 18% surge. Morgan Stanley contrarianly upgraded to “overweight,” saying deleveraging is more than halfway done with 36% upside potential.

6. Asset Managers Warn on Long-Term Treasuries Multiple top asset managers warned that long-term Treasuries will continue falling as long as the Fed fails to demonstrate clear inflation-control commitment. St. Louis Fed President also noted Treasury volatility signals market confidence erosion.

🧭 Assessment

The oil crash is the biggest variable this hour — if US-Iran talks progress substantively, oil may further unwind geopolitical premium, which is short-term bullish for inflation expectations.

However, beware the “Trump TACO” risk: announcements are easy, follow-through is hard. Iran has not confirmed, and reversal is possible at any time.

Japan FX intervention signals are dense and increasingly hawkish; another intervention today is possible.

Asia-Pacific PMIs generally stable. China’s RatingDog manufacturing PMI fell to 50.9 (prev 51.7) — slower expansion but not yet contracting.

Tonight’s US ISM Manufacturing PMI (expected 54, prev 53.3) is the first major data point this week — a beat would reinforce the Fed’s higher-for-longer logic.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

• 13:00 India July Manufacturing PMI Final (Expected 53.5)
• 14:00 Germany June Retail Sales MoM (Expected -0.1%)
• 14:30 ⭐ Switzerland July CPI YoY (Expected 0.40%)
• 15:50 ⭐ France July Manufacturing PMI Final (Expected 50)
• 15:55 ⭐ Germany July Manufacturing PMI Final (Expected 52.2)
• 16:00 ⭐ Eurozone July Manufacturing PMI Final (Expected 52)
• 16:30 ⭐ UK July Manufacturing PMI Final (Expected 52.8)
• 21:45 ⭐ US July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final
• 22:00 ⭐⭐ US July ISM Manufacturing PMI (Expected 54, Prev 53.3) — Today’s Focus