📰 Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-03 10:00 CST

📊 Market Snapshot

🔥 Key News This Hour

1. Trump Calls Off New Iran Strikes, Oil Crashes

Trump called off a new round of military strikes against Iran, saying Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and others requested he hold off. He claimed a Hormuz Strait deal is “imminent” and that US-Iran negotiations will begin Monday local time. WTI crude plunged over 8% at open, now at $78.85, down 7.27%. Geopolitical risk premium rapidly unwinding.

2. China July Manufacturing PMI Slows

China’s July RatingDog Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.9, down from 51.7 prior — still in expansion territory but at a noticeably slower pace. A-shares reacted negatively: STAR 50 index down 4%, ChiNext down 1.59%, Shanghai Composite down 0.6%.

3. Trump Acknowledges Yen Intervention, Shorts Squeezed

Trump publicly backed US-Japan joint market intervention, admitting the US participated in last week’s yen intervention, calling it a “signal of friendship.” Treasury Secretary Bessent’s meeting notes were accidentally leaked, suggesting more coordinated intervention may follow. Yen shorts squeezed; Nikkei 225 down 1.65% today.

4. Wash Proposes Streamlining Fed Operations

Fed Chair Wash proposed reducing the number of FOMC meetings from 8 to 6 per year, having already streamlined statements and shortened press conferences. Analysts warn this could increase market volatility during periods of policy uncertainty.

5. HKEX Launches 5-Year CNH Bond Futures

Hong Kong Exchange officially launched 5-year RMB bond futures today — the only treasury futures contract in the offshore market, designed to meet growing demand from international investors for interest rate risk management.

6. Asia Manufacturing PMIs Released

Japan July Manufacturing PMI final at 54.5 (slightly below 54.7 prior), South Korea at 53.1 (above 52.1 prior), Vietnam at 52.9, Australia at 52.0. Asian manufacturing broadly remains in expansion.

🧭 Assessment

Trump’s decision to call off Iran strikes is the biggest variable this hour — geopolitical risk premium compressed rapidly, with WTI’s 7% single-day plunge reflecting a one-time unwinding of prior escalation pricing.

However, Hormuz Strait transit remains disrupted, and the supply “chokepoint” issue is not fundamentally resolved — a short-term oil price rebound cannot be ruled out.

China’s manufacturing PMI slowing to 50.9, combined with STAR 50’s 4% drop, signals market doubts about the pace of economic recovery.

The yen intervention reflects deep US-Japan exchange rate dynamics — forced short covering doesn’t necessarily reverse the trend; BoJ’s subsequent policy moves warrant close attention.

Tonight’s US ISM Manufacturing PMI (expected 54) is the first major data point this week — a beat would reinforce the US economic resilience narrative.

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