π° Morning Briefing (00:00-08:00) | 2026-08-03
US-Japan coordinated Yen intervention confirmed; Trump announces US-Iran talks, WTI crude crashes over 6%. China PBOC maintains moderately loose monetary policy; Fed rate hike odds for September at 73.6%. This week focuses on US non-farm payrolls and ISM Manufacturing PMI.
π Market Snapshot
| Instrument | Last | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Spot (XAUUSD) | 4,068.89 | -25.29 | -0.63% |
| WTI Crude (USOIL) | 79.34 | -5.69 | -6.70% |
- Gold pulled back slightly, trading in the 4,063-4,083 range, soft tone intraday
- Crude oil plunged on news of US-Iran negotiations resuming, hitting as low as $74 before partially recovering to $79
π₯ Key Overnight News
1. US-Japan Coordinated Yen Intervention Japan’s Ministry of Finance confirmed a coordinated Yen-buying intervention with the US Treasury last Friday. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated the coordinated action addressed disorderly Yen volatility. Trump said the US is “helping Japan support the Yen β a signal of friendship beneficial to the world economy,” and referenced Pearl Harbor. Japan’s MOF stated it will not hesitate to conduct further intervention and plans to use the Fed’s FIMA repo facility.
2. Trump Announces US-Iran Talks Today Trump announced the US will negotiate with Iran on August 3, claiming a Hormuz Strait deal is already in place and a denuclearization agreement will follow. Trump agreed to cancel a new round of strikes on Iran. Middle East tracking shows US F-35C flights from the USS Lincoln carrier group enforcing the blockade in the Arabian Sea.
3. Oil Prices Plunge WTI crude futures crashed over 8% intraday on US-Iran negotiation news, hitting a low of $74/barrel before partially recovering to $79. Brent crude fell in tandem.
4. Fed Rate Hike Expectations Rise CME FedWatch shows a 26.4% probability the Fed holds rates steady in September, with a 73.6% probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike. US Treasury futures rose β 10-year up 13 ticks, 30-year up 22 ticks.
5. China PBOC H2 Work Conference The People’s Bank of China held its H2 2026 work conference, reaffirming a moderately loose monetary policy stance. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange will continue to steadily expand institutional openness in the foreign exchange sector.
6. Oman Sea Tanker Explosion The UK Maritime Trade Operations office reported a tanker captain heard an explosion near the vessel, approximately 20 nautical miles northeast of Seeb, Oman.
7. Israeli Internal Discord Deepens Israeli Defense Minister Katz publicly announced the dismissal of the Central Command chief, but the IDF issued a pre-dawn statement pushing back, exposing open internal divisions.
π§ Assessment
The US-Japan coordinated Yen intervention is the most significant geopolitical financial event of the weekend β direct US Treasury participation in FX intervention is extremely rare, signaling the Yen depreciation has hit a policy floor.
The intervention will suppress Yen shorts in the short term, but sustainability depends on the fundamental US-Japan interest rate differential β subsequent direction warrants close monitoring.
The US-Iran negotiation news directly triggered the overnight crude crash β if substantive progress is made, oil could face further downside pressure.
However, Hormuz Strait security issues are not fundamentally resolved β the Oman Sea tanker explosion incident reminds markets that geopolitical risk premiums will not easily dissipate.
Gold is consolidating narrowly in the 4,060-4,080 range, reflecting market tension between geopolitical de-escalation and rate hike expectations β direction unclear.
This week’s key focus is the US July ISM Manufacturing PMI (today 22:00 Beijing time) and non-farm payrolls data, which will directly influence Fed September rate hike expectations.
China’s continued moderately loose policy provides support for A-shares and commodity demand-side fundamentals.
π Today’s Key Economic Calendar
- 09:45 βββ China July RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (prev. 51.7)
- 14:30 βββ Switzerland July CPI MoM (exp. -0.10%)
- 15:50 βββ France July Manufacturing PMI Final (exp. 50)
- 15:55 βββ Germany July Manufacturing PMI Final (exp. 52.2)
- 16:00 βββ Eurozone July Manufacturing PMI Final (exp. 52)
- 16:30 βββ UK July Manufacturing PMI Final (exp. 52.8)
- 21:45 βββ US July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (exp. 53.8)
- 22:00 ββββ US July ISM Manufacturing PMI (exp. 54, prev. 53.3) β Key
- 22:00 βββ US June Construction Spending MoM (exp. 0.2%)
- 22:00 ββ US July ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid (exp. 70, prev. 73)