đź“Š Market Snapshot

  • Gold (XAUUSD) 4043.60 (-1.46%↓), intraday high 4111.72, low 4020.94, retreating from highs
  • WTI Crude (USOIL) 85.04 (+2.88%↑), peaked at 85.035, low 79.945

Note: Above are Friday’s closing prices; markets closed over the weekend.

🔥 Key News This Hour

1. Trump Announces Cancellation of Iran Strikes; Iranian Media Denies Deal

Trump posted on social media that he received requests from Iran and other Middle Eastern countries to hold off on attacks, as a framework deal had been reached including opening the Strait of Hormuz. He agreed to cancel the strikes conditional on a swift agreement. Iranian media dismissed this as “a new lie.”

2. OPEC+ Agrees to Raise Production by 188k bpd in September

The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) met on Sunday, agreeing to increase September production quotas by 188,000 bpd, meaning 2023 production cuts have been nominally fully offset. The statement did not mention policy beyond September. The next meeting is scheduled for September 6.

3. Iran Claims Bahrain Amazon Data Center Strike Was Response to US Actions

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards spokesman stated that the Amazon data processing center in Bahrain was targeted because it provided intelligence support, cloud computing, and services related to the US military command system, as part of “Operation Victory-2.”

4. Israel Denies Agreeing to Gaza Ceasefire

Israeli Security Cabinet member and Energy Minister Eli Cohen explicitly stated that Israel has not agreed to halt military operations in Gaza, and the Security Cabinet has not voted on any “Gaza ceasefire plan” in the past 72 hours.

5. OPEC+ JMMC Expresses Concern Over Attacks on Energy Infrastructure

The JMMC emphasized the importance of protecting international maritime routes to ensure the continuous flow of energy. During the Iran conflict, Middle East supply remains constrained by the conflict.

6. Moscow Restaurant Bombing Classified as Terrorist Attack

Moscow Mayor Sobyanin confirmed that the August 1 restaurant explosion was a terrorist attack, causing multiple casualties. Law enforcement is investigating.

🧭 Situation Assessment

Signals of de-escalation in the Middle East are emerging, but uncertainty remains extremely high.

Trump unilaterally announced the cancellation of strikes on Iran, but Iranian media denies any deal was reached. The severe information asymmetry makes it difficult for markets to price.

The Strait of Hormuz navigation issue is the core contradiction—Iran previously announced suspending passage, Trump claims the framework includes opening the strait, but Iran’s stance remains unclear.

OPEC+’s production increase decision adds downward pressure on oil prices. The 188k bpd increase in September nominally fully offsets 2023 cuts, but supply risks from the Middle East conflict persist.

Gold retreated from 4111 highs to 4043, reflecting a partial unwinding of geopolitical risk premium, though rising 10-year Treasury yields are also a constraining factor.

Next week focus: NFP data and tech earnings will dominate markets; US-Japan coordinated yen intervention may be officially announced Monday.

⏰ Upcoming Key Events

  • Nonfarm Payrolls: Next week (exact date TBC), a moderate jobs report could benefit risk sentiment
  • Tech Giant Earnings: Dense release schedule next week, moving markets
  • US-Japan Coordinated Yen Intervention: Sources indicate major developments Monday
  • OPEC+ Next Meeting: September 6