đź“Š Market Snapshot

  • Gold (XAUUSD): $4,043.60 (daily -1.46%, open $4,103.78, high $4,111.72)
  • WTI Crude (USOIL): $85.04 (daily +2.88%, open $82.52, high $85.04)

Note: Above are Friday (8/1) closing data; markets closed over the weekend.

🔥 Key News This Hour

  1. Trump Announces Cancellation of Iran Strikes — Trump posted on social media that he received requests from Iran and Middle Eastern countries to delay attacks, claiming a framework deal was reached including opening the Strait of Hormuz. Condition: “a deal must be reached quickly.” However, Iran’s Fars News Agency immediately refuted this as “a new lie,” and informed sources denied any agreement to reopen the strait.

  2. Iran Officially Denies Hormuz Strait Deal — Iran’s Fars News Agency, citing military sources, called reports of a plan to reopen the Strait “pure rumor,” emphasizing Iran’s policy on the strategic waterway remains unchanged. US and Iranian statements completely contradict each other; the situation remains highly uncertain.

  3. Brokerages Release AI Correction Reports — Guangfa Strategy noted AI assets likely have “considerable correction space” after July’s sharp pullback; CICC’s report argues the current AI correction is “highly similar” to the four pullback phases of the 2000 dot-com bust, with stabilization requiring three major pressures to ease. Two top brokerages issuing synchronized reports carries clear signal significance.

  4. Multiple Funds Issue Premium Warnings — Nasdaq 100 ETF, Harvest Crude Oil LOF, and Guotou Silver LOF all issued premium risk warnings on the same day, reflecting irrational chasing behavior in A-share cross-border and commodity LOF products.

  5. CITIC Securities: Dawn Only After Rate Hike Lands — After missing this rate hike window, US stock valuations face pressure regardless of whether the Fed hikes in September. However, a rate hike landing could release valuation suppression over the medium to long term.

🧭 Situation Assessment

The Iran-Hormuz Strait situation shows a major turning point signal, with Trump claiming a framework deal but Iran denying it—geopolitical maneuvering has entered an “information warfare” phase, and markets will struggle to price this in the near term.

Gold pulled back from $4,111 highs to $4,043 but remains above the $4,000 threshold, indicating strong safe-haven demand persists and funds have not truly exited despite Trump’s “positive” statements.

WTI crude’s 2.88% rebound to $85 reflects continued violent swings in market pricing of Hormuz Strait risk—if the strait genuinely reopens, oil has significant downside room; if negotiations collapse, upside risk is equally substantial.

Guangfa and CICC simultaneously publishing AI correction reports signals mainstream brokerages remain cautious about short-term AI asset rebounds, viewing the current environment as still within an adjustment cycle—not recommending rushing to buy the dip.

The concentrated appearance of LOF premium warnings is historically a short-term top signal; investors should be wary of emotionally driven chasing.

Key focus for next week: US July non-farm payrolls, tech giant earnings deluge, US-Japan coordinated yen intervention announcement.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • 8/4 (Mon): US July Non-Farm Payrolls — the most important macro data of the week, directly impacting Fed September rate decision expectations
  • 8/4 (Mon): US-Japan coordinated yen intervention announcement (per Jin10 weekly outlook)
  • Next week: Tech giant earnings dense release period, a critical window for AI sector direction