π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-02 17:00 CST
OPEC+ agrees in principle to raise output by 188kbpd, pause increases in Q4; Iran accepts Qatar+US plan to reopen Strait of Hormuz, Trump cancels strike; CITIC Securities sees US equity valuation pressure short-term; PBoC maintains moderately loose monetary policy for H2.
π Market Snapshot
- π₯ Spot Gold XAUUSD: $4,043.60 (intraday -$60.00, -1.46%)
- π’οΈ WTI Crude USOIL: $85.04 (intraday +$2.38, +2.88%)
- βΈοΈ US markets closed (Saturday), quotes are Friday’s close
π₯ Key News This Hour
1. OPEC+ Agrees in Principle to Raise Output by 188kbpd, Pause in Q4 Market sources report OPEC+ has agreed in principle to raise daily production by 188,000 barrels and pause increases in Q4. The limited hike and Q4 pause suggest the alliance remains cautious on demand outlook.
2. Iran Accepts Qatar+US Plan to Reopen Hormuz Strait; Trump Cancels Strike Israel’s Channel 12 reports Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi has agreed to a Qatar-US joint solution to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which prompted Trump to cancel planned strikes on Iran. A meaningful de-escalation signal in geopolitical tensions.
3. CITIC Securities: US Equity Valuations Pressured Short-Term, Release After Rate Hike CITIC Securities research note states that regardless of whether the Fed hikes in September, US equity valuations face short-term pressure. However, once a hike materializes, it could release valuation constraints, with AI productivity dividends offering structural opportunities longer-term.
4. PBoC H2 Work Meeting: Continue Moderately Loose Monetary Policy The People’s Bank of China outlined H2 priorities, emphasizing continued moderately loose monetary policy using reverse repos, MLF, and treasury bond trading to maintain ample liquidity. Also aims to expand financial opening and create a foreign central bank repo facility.
5. BYD July NEV Production Exceeds 420k Units, Exports 180k BYD reported July NEV production of 420,249 units (vs 317,892 last year, +32% YoY) and exports of 180,538 units. Year-to-date production reached 2.23 million units.
6. Japan: National Reserves Can Secure Oil Supply Through March 2028 Japan’s METI Minister Akazawa stated that even under conservative procurement assumptions, drawing on national reserves would be sufficient to secure oil supply through March 2028, providing a buffer against Middle East supply disruption risks.
π§ Situation Assessment
OPEC+ small hike with Q4 pause, combined with Hormuz Strait de-escalation signals, puts oil prices in a two-way tug-of-war β bearish supply increase vs. fading geopolitical premium, though the Q4 pause limits downside.
Iran accepting the Qatar+US plan is a key turning point. Hormuz Strait passage may resume, and geopolitical risk premium is fading.
However, execution risk remains between “agreeing to a plan” and “actual resumption of navigation.” Middle East tensions could still resurface.
CITIC Securities’ view is worth noting: Fed rate hike expectations have suppressed US equity valuations, but the market may be underestimating the release effect once a hike actually lands.
The PBoC’s moderately loose tone signals ample liquidity and sufficient policy room for H2.
Japan’s oil reserve guarantee through 2028 signals that countries are preparing for prolonged Middle East supply disruption scenarios.
β οΈ Saturday β markets closed. Price data reflects Friday’s close.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- 8/4 (Mon): US July ISM Manufacturing PMI
- 8/5 (Tue): US June JOLTs Job Openings
- 8/6 (Wed): US July ADP Employment, ISM Services PMI
- 8/7 (Thu): US Initial Jobless Claims
- 8/8 (Fri): US July Non-Farm Payrolls Report βββ
Next week is NFP week. Employment data will shape Fed September rate hike expectations, coinciding with tech giant earnings season β expect elevated market volatility.