π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-02 15:00 CST
Trump cancels military strike on Iran, geopolitical risk premium eases, gold drops to $4,040. Hormuz Strait remains blocked, WTI crude surges to $85. Japan says oil supply secured through March 2028, Rubio says Iran more willing to negotiate.
π Market Snapshot
- Gold XAUUSD: $4,043.60 β-1.46% (Day High $4,111.72 β Low $4,020.94)
- WTI Crude USOIL: $85.04 β+2.88% (Day Low $79.95 β High $85.04)
Gold pulled back sharply from above $4,100 to around $4,040; crude oil rose against the trend, with WTI breaking above $85.
π₯ Key News This Hour
Trump Cancels Iran Strike β Trump says Iran and Middle Eastern nations requested a delay, agreeing to cancel the military strike on Iran. Analysts point to Saudi Crown Prince’s mediation and Iran’s pressure as key factors. Geopolitical risk significantly reduced.
Rubio: Iran More Willing to Negotiate β US Secretary of State Rubio states that US military strikes have destroyed Iran’s navy, air force, and missile defense systems, forcing Iran to be more willing to negotiate on its nuclear program and the Hormuz Strait.
Japan Secures Oil Supply β METI Minister Akazawa says August crude oil procurement has reached 100% of typical year levels, with national reserves sufficient to cover supply through March 2028. Hormuz Strait disruption has already pushed Japan’s Q2 electricity prices up 30% YoY.
Israel Kills Two Hamas Commanders in Gaza
China Cotton Association Opposes US Sanctions on Textile Firms β Calls US “forced labor” allegations baseless, saying they destabilize the global cotton supply chain.
South Korea Issues Heat Advisory, Temperatures Hit Record Highs β Yangsan reports the highest temperature ever recorded.
WestJet Airlines Halts Operations β Following strike notice from the union, 210 flights canceled for Sunday.
π§ Situation Assessment
Trump’s cancellation of the Iran strike has reduced geopolitical risk premium in the short term, with gold pulling back sharply from above $4,100 to $4,040.
However, the Hormuz Strait remains blocked, and the risk of crude oil supply disruption persists, with WTI surging above $85.
Japanese officials’ claims of secured oil supply aim to stabilize market sentiment, but IEA data shows the strait disruption has already materially raised Japan’s electricity prices by 30%.
Rubio’s remarks suggest Washington’s strategy is “strike to compel negotiation,” making Iran’s subsequent negotiation willingness the key point to watch.
Next week’s market focus: Non-farm payrolls, tech giant earnings, possible US-Japan joint FX intervention announcement.
β° Upcoming Key Events
- 8/7 (Fri): US July Non-Farm Payrolls Report
- Next Week: Tech giant earnings season continues
- 8/4 (Mon): Possible US-Japan joint FX intervention announcement
- Ongoing: Hormuz Strait navigation status, Iran negotiation developments