πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

InstrumentLatestChange% Change
Gold XAUUSD$4,043.60-$59.98-1.46%
WTI Crude USOIL$85.04+$2.38+2.88%

Gold spiked to $4,111 intraday before retreating to $4,043, with losses narrowing but still under pressure. Oil surged on geopolitical tensions, rallying over $5 from the session low of $79.95.

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

1. Trump Orders New Round of Strikes on Iran Per Wall Street Journal, US officials say Trump has ordered a new round of attacks on Iran aimed at forcing Tehran’s surrender, with operations potentially starting as early as this weekend and lasting several days. Trump told Fox News the war is “progressing well.”

2. US Embassies in Middle East Issue Security Warnings The US embassies in Israel and Jordan successively issued security alerts, urging American citizens in the Middle East to maintain high vigilance and consider evacuating, warning of unpredictable escalation risks.

3. Iran Claims Use of New Drone Type Iranian military spokesperson announced recent use of new drones with range sufficient to reach US military bases in the Middle East, with details to be released in coming days. Iran separately denied that explosions in its western province were militarily related, attributing them to old artillery shells.

4. Ukraine Launches Multi-Front Counterattacks Zelensky announced Ukraine struck the sanctioned Russian container ship YANINA (100,000+ tons) and attacked infrastructure at three Russian oil refineries in Bashkortostan. Russia confirmed a civilian vessel was sunk by drones.

5. Russia Launches Massive Strike on Kyiv Russia’s Defense Ministry reported large-scale strikes overnight July 31–August 1 on military-industrial enterprises and logistics centers in Kyiv, with Ukrainian media reporting multiple casualties. Russian forces also advanced in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv regions, capturing two villages.

6. BYD July Sales Exceed 419,000, Overseas Sales Hit Record BYD sold 419,211 units in July with overseas sales approaching 180,000, a new record. Year-to-date sales reached 2.23 million. Geely also posted record July sales of 250,000 units, with new energy exports up 616% YoY.

🧭 Situation Assessment

The Middle East is entering a new high-risk window β€” Trump has ordered a new round of strikes on Iran starting as early as this weekend and lasting days, with US embassies in Israel and Jordan simultaneously issuing evacuation warnings, an extremely rare signal.

Iran is responding with “new drone” capabilities and the ongoing Hormuz Strait suspension as leverage, signaling the geopolitical game is escalating from rhetoric toward actual military action.

Oil markets are reacting violently, with WTI surging nearly 3% intraday, rallying from below $80 to $85, pricing in the tail risk of strait closure and military strikes.

Gold paradoxically fell 1.5% after spiking to $4,111, indicating heavy profit-taking above that level; geopolitical premium is partially priced in, and “buy the rumor, sell the news” risk is elevated in the short term.

The Ukraine front is equally active, with Zelensky striking Russian domestic refineries and Black Sea vessels simultaneously while Russia intensifies bombing of Kyiv β€” both sides are positioning for leverage at the negotiating table.

Next week’s focus is on US non-farm payrolls (August 7), which will directly impact rate cut expectations amid Fed Chair Wash’s contested communication strategy and hawkish pressure from FOMC members.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • Aug 2 (Sat): No major economic data; monitor Middle East developments
  • Aug 3 (Sun): China July Caixin Manufacturing PMI
  • Aug 4 (Mon): US July ISM Manufacturing PMI
  • Aug 5 (Tue): US June JOLTs Job Openings
  • Aug 7 (Fri): β˜…β˜…β˜… US July Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate