π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-08-01 10:00 CST
Iran's Revolutionary Guard seizes two oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing WTI crude to $85; US and Japan jointly intervene in yen for the first time in nearly 30 years, with Treasury Secretary's memo exposed showing $50-100B buying plan; Fed's Musalem leans toward rate hikes, warns bond sell-off threatens Fed credibility; OpenAI IPO may be delayed to next year.
π Market Snapshot
- Spot Gold XAUUSD: $4,043.60 βΌ -1.46% (Day high $4,111.72 β low $4,020.94)
- WTI Crude USOIL: $85.04 β² +2.88% (Day high $85.04 β low $79.95)
π₯ Key News This Hour
1. Iran Seizes Two Oil Tankers in Strait of Hormuz Iran’s Revolutionary Guard struck and seized two tankers violating bans in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran had earlier announced suspension of passage through the strait, citing “aggressive actions” by US forces. Trump vowed to continue strong strikes against Iran, while the Pentagon stated it stands ready to execute the President’s directives.
2. US-Japan Joint Yen Intervention β First in Nearly 30 Years Reuters captured a photo of Treasury Secretary Bessent’s notebook at a Camp David cabinet meeting, revealing a “buy yen” to-do item with $50-100B. The US Treasury has notified banks to prepare for “future actions.” Japan previously suspected of spending $53B in a single day of intervention, potentially a record.
3. Fed’s Musalem Leans Toward Rate Hikes Financial Times reports Fed Governor Musalem is leaning toward rate hikes, warning that the bond sell-off is a warning signal for Fed credibility. Hawkish voices are growing, creating tension with Wash’s “streamlined communication” approach, as 30-year Treasury yields continue to surge.
4. OpenAI IPO May Be Delayed to Next Year Wall Street Journal reports OpenAI faces investor concerns over growth costs and competitive pressure, potentially delaying its IPO to next year. Some major investors have privately expressed concerns about the company’s valuation relative to its growth.
5. Russia-Ukraine Conflict Escalates Kyiv hit by ballistic missiles, 12 injured. Russia claims over 21,000 Ukrainian drones shot down in July. Polish F-16s intercepted a Russian reconnaissance aircraft over the Baltic Sea.
6. China’s July Secondary Home Prices Decline 0.44% MoM China Index Academy data shows July transaction volume in key cities continued to grow YoY, but the average secondary home price in 100 cities fell 0.44% MoM to 12,584 yuan/sqm, with most cities still adjusting.
π§ Situation Assessment
Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and seizure of tankers directly pushed WTI crude to $85, up nearly 3% intraday.
Gold paradoxically fell 1.46%, showing a “safe haven not safe haven” pattern β likely because the oil spike fueled inflation expectations, pushing Treasury yields higher and suppressing gold prices.
Fed’s Musalem’s hawkish stance toward rate hikes, combined with yen intervention tightening dollar liquidity expectations, puts pressure on risk assets.
The US-Japan joint yen intervention is a rare move not seen in nearly 30 years, with potential scale of $50-100B, reflecting that currency destabilization has reached a critical point.
The Hormuz Strait situation is the biggest tail risk currently β if the blockade persists, ~20% of global oil transport is affected, and oil prices could surge further.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- 8/1 (Fri) 20:30 CST β US July Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate (this week’s most important release)
- 8/1 (Fri) 22:00 CST β US July ISM Manufacturing PMI
- 8/3-8/9 β Next week: US ISM Services PMI, Initial Jobless Claims, etc.