π° Morning Briefing (00:00-08:00) | 2026-08-01
Trump orders new round of airstrikes on Iran; US-Israel planning to bomb Iran's energy infrastructure; Hormuz Strait passage suspended. Japan intervenes in FX market for second consecutive day; Fed's Warsh considers reducing FOMC meeting frequency. US stocks closed higher boosted by Amazon earnings; gold pulled back 1.5%; oil surged 2.9%.
π Market Overview
| Asset | Last | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPX) | 7,489.80 | +52.17 (+0.70%) |
| Dow Jones (DJI) | 52,485.74 | +277.68 (+0.53%) |
| Gold (XAUUSD) | 4,043.60 | -59.98 (-1.46%) |
| WTI Crude (USOIL) | 85.04 | +2.38 (+2.88%) |
US stocks closed higher on Friday, with Amazon’s strong earnings boosting AI sector confidence, while Apple disappointed. Gold pulled back from highs; geopolitical risk drove oil up nearly 3%.
π₯ Key Overnight News
Iran Escalation: Situation Rapidly Deteriorating
- Trump orders new attacks on Iran: Per WSJ, US officials say Trump has ordered a new round of attacks on Iran, potentially starting this weekend and lasting days. A two-week high-intensity airstrike campaign is under consideration to force Tehran’s capitulation.
- US-Israel planning strikes on Iran energy infrastructure: CBS reports the US and Israel are planning “one of the most intense bombing campaigns yet” against Iran’s energy infrastructure, targeting power plants and refineries, potentially lasting through the weekend.
- Iran threatens retaliation: A senior Iranian security official stated Iran has a comprehensive plan to strike Israeli critical infrastructure and US energy infrastructure in the region. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council secretary warned that US maritime blockades would lead to closure of the Strait of Hormuz and other waterways.
- Hormuz Strait passage suspended: Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Affairs Authority declared the strait unsafe for navigation due to US “aggressive actions.”
Houthi Blockade Escalation
- Houthi forces announced continued blockade of Saudi vessels; 8 Saudi oil tankers forced to reroute via Cape of Good Hope. US Central Command has diverted 30 commercial vessels as of July 31.
Japan Consecutive FX Intervention
- Japan’s government and BOJ intervened in the FX market for a second consecutive day. Per Nikkei, Thursday’s intervention may have exceeded $53 billion, potentially the largest in history. USD/JPY fell below 158, down 0.92% intraday.
Fed’s Warsh Considers Reducing FOMC Meeting Frequency
- Per NYT, Fed Chair Warsh is considering reducing the frequency of FOMC rate decision meetings, a move that could cause significant disruption and mark the most major change to Fed operations in recent years.
US Markets & AI Updates
- Emerging market stock index surged 6.6%, the best single-day performance since the 2008 subprime crisis.
- Google’s Gemini Spark rolling out to GoogleAI Pro users outside the US.
- OpenAI announced GPT-5.4 and GPT-5.4 mini will no longer be available to ChatGPT logged-in users starting August 31.
π§ Situation Assessment
The Middle East situation has shifted from “standoff” to “active engagement.” Trump ordering new airstrikes on Iran with energy infrastructure as the target is the clearest escalation signal to date.
Hormuz Strait suspension + Houthi blockade of Saudi tankers β global oil supply chain faces dual shock. Oil’s nearly 3% surge overnight is just the beginning of repricing; if airstrikes continue for two weeks, upside potential for oil is far from exhausted.
Gold pulling back 1.5% near the 4,000 level is normal profit-taking after the recent surge. Geopolitical risk has not receded; the pullback may offer an entry window, but short-term volatility will be extreme.
Japan intervening two days in a row, spending $53 billion in a single day, is unprecedented in scale. USD/JPY still falling below 158 suggests limited intervention effectiveness and strong yen-selling pressure.
Fed’s Warsh considering fewer FOMC meetings β reduced monetary policy flexibility, dashing market hopes for emergency easing. Combined with Warsh’s refusal to provide clear forward guidance, 30-year Treasury yields are surging; the bond market is voting with its feet.
Emerging markets surging 6.6% (best since 2008) signals capital overflowing from US stocks. If the Middle East conflict persists, capital may accelerate its shift toward emerging markets as a safe haven.
π Today’s Economic Calendar
Today is Saturday (August 1), with no major economic data releases. Key events to watch next week:
- US-Iran military operations (starting this weekend, lasting days)
- Japan FX intervention follow-through
- Fed official speeches