π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-07-31 14:00 CST
Crude oil plunges, WTI briefly breaks below $80; Asian tech stocks stage violent rebound with KOSPI surging 18%; BOJ holds steady but hawkish member backs consecutive hikes; SNB posts H1 profit of CHF 25.2B
π Market Snapshot
- XAUUSD 4074.41 (-0.71%), intraday low 4071.91
- WTI Crude 80.37 (-2.76%), briefly dipped below $80 to 79.95
- Brent Crude 84.24 (-3.00%)
- SC Crude Futures 538.40 (-4.00%), Fuel Oil Futures -4.00%
- KOSPI +18.00%, SK Hynix limit up (+30%), Samsung Electronics +26.5%
- Taiwan Weighted +7.98%, TSMC +10%
- A-Share Northbound 50 +4%, Shanghai/Shenzhen turnover exceeded 2T yuan for 5th consecutive session
π₯ Key News This Hour
Crude Oil Plunges, WTI Briefly Below $80 WTI fell over 3.2% intraday to hit $79.95, Brent dropped 3% to $84.24. Goldman Sachs reported global refining throughput down ~6.5M bpd year-on-year, calling diesel the “epicenter of the supply crisis.” Both SC crude and fuel oil futures fell over 4%, reflecting mounting demand concerns.
Asian Tech Stocks Stage Violent Rebound KOSPI surged 18% to above 6,600, SK Hynix hit the 30% limit-up, Samsung Electronics jumped 26.5%. Taiwan’s index rose nearly 8%, TSMC gained ~10%. The deleveraging wave triggered by the prior tech rout appears to be seeing a short-term recovery, though the ferocity of the rebound suggests heavy short-covering.
SNB Posts H1 Profit of CHF 25.2B Global equity gains and a weaker franc generated CHF 31.7B in FX position profits, but gold holdings recorded a CHF 6.4B valuation loss, echoing today’s gold price decline.
BOJ Holds Steady, Hawkish Member Backs Consecutive Hikes The BOJ kept rates unchanged, slightly raised growth forecasts but lowered near-term inflation projections. One member supported consecutive rate hikes, with the market interpreting the decision as hawkish. Governor Ueda’s 14:30 press conference is a key event to watch.
π§ Market Assessment
Crude oil breaking below the $80 level, combined with Goldman’s warning on the diesel supply crisis, suggests significant near-term downside pressure β but be alert for potential OPEC+ intervention signals.
Today’s violent Asian tech rebound appears driven mostly by short-covering after extreme overselling; KOSPI surging 18% in a single day is itself abnormal, and the sustainability of this bounce is questionable.
Gold falling in tandem with crude, plus the SNB’s reported gold valuation losses, points to weak near-term momentum for gold, with 4070 as key support.
If Ueda’s 14:30 remarks signal a hawkish tilt, it could further strengthen the yen, adding pressure on the Japanese equity rebound.
On the geopolitical front, Saudi Arabia is preparing military action against Yemen, with Houthi forces continuing attacks on energy infrastructure β Middle East escalation could push oil prices higher down the line.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- 14:00 UK July Nationwide House Price Index MoM
- 14:30 Switzerland June Real Retail Sales YoY
- 14:30 BOJ Governor Ueda Press Conference
- TBD China Refined Oil Price Adjustment Window