📰 Morning Briefing (00:00-08:00) | 2026-07-31
Japan and South Korea jointly intervene in FX markets, USD/JPY plunges from 164 back below 160; Microsoft adds $450B in market cap in a single day, a historic record; Apple drops 7% after-hours on weak guidance; US June PCE turns negative MoM for the first time in two years; Fed September rate hike probability rises to 63.4%
📊 Market Snapshot
| Asset | Price | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,437.98 | +1.67% | Microsoft-led rally |
| Dow Jones | 52,209.57 | +1.19% | Steady intraday gains |
| Spot Gold | 4,104.36 | +0.02% | Narrow range around 4100 |
| WTI Crude | 82.70 | +0.06% | Recovered after 2% intraday drop |
| USD/JPY | 160.01 | +0.33% | Rebounded back to 160 post-intervention |
Post-market divergence: MSFT +15.5% · AMZN +10% · AAPL -7% · Memory chip stocks rallied across the board
🔥 Key Overnight News
Japan and South Korea Stage Coordinated FX Intervention Japan conducted massive yen-buying, dollar-selling intervention in New York trading on Thursday, pulling USD/JPY from near 164—a four-decade low—back below 160. South Korea simultaneously executed a rare dollar-selling intervention, pushing the won up 2% to a nine-month high. Nikkei reported, citing sources, that the US and Japan acted jointly. US Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly stated the yen “appears severely undervalued.” Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said this morning Japan is “always prepared to respond to FX markets with a high sense of urgency.”
Microsoft Adds Record $450B in Market Cap in a Single Day Microsoft surged 15.5% after blowout Q4 earnings, adding $450 billion in market value—the largest single-day increase ever for any US stock, surpassing Nvidia’s April 2025 record. AI-related revenue was the core driver, breaking the recent gloom around AI stocks. Year-to-date losses narrowed from ~19.3% to 5.8%.
Apple Plunges 7% After-Hours on Weak Q4 Guidance Apple reported Q3 revenue of $109.42B, slightly above estimates, but CFO guided Q4 revenue growth of 9-11%, below the 12.1% analyst consensus. Greater China revenue disappointed. Shares dropped 7% after-hours.
Amazon Surges 10% After-Hours Strong earnings drove a 10% post-market rally.
US June PCE Turns Negative MoM for First Time Since 2020 Headline PCE fell 0.1% month-over-month in June, the first monthly decline since 2020. Core PCE rose just 0.13% MoM—the mildest increase since March 2025. Fed Chair Warsh signaled a broader set of inflation metrics will guide policy; Citi sees this reducing the near-term rate hike probability. Yet CME FedWatch still shows a 63.4% probability of a 25bp hike in September.
Gaza Ceasefire Breakthrough Hamas and its armed factions agreed to hand over weapons to the Gaza administration committee. US officials expressed “high confidence” Israel will comply with terms. Iran reportedly tried to persuade Hamas not to reach a deal but was overcome by US efforts.
Russia-Ukraine Russia launched large-scale strikes on Ukrainian military airfields and defense industrial facilities. Trump said he is “not sure” about allowing Ukraine to produce Patriot missiles, while announcing Kushner and Witkoff will visit Ukraine for the first time in the coming days.
Suez Canal Risk Escalates Drone attacks in Egyptian waters damaged two natural gas tankers, prompting markets to reassess Suez Canal and related energy infrastructure risks.
EU Launches AI Super Factory Initiative The plan aims to mobilize over €30 billion in investment. Google released a new-generation robotics AI model. OpenAI slashed GPT-5.6 series prices by up to 80%.
🧭 Strategic Assessment
US equities rallied strongly on Microsoft’s super earnings, but Apple’s 7% post-market plunge poured cold water on the optimism—the Nasdaq’s earnings divergence is exceptionally stark.
The coordinated Japan-Korea FX intervention was the biggest macro event overnight, with the US Treasury Secretary publicly backing the move, suggesting near-term dollar weakness, but the sustainability of intervention remains questionable—USD/JPY has already rebounded back above 160 this morning.
The negative PCE print combined with Warsh’s dovish tone should theoretically reduce rate hike expectations, yet the September hike probability rose to 63.4%, signaling declining market trust in the Fed.
Gold is oscillating in a narrow range near 4100, supported by geopolitical risks (Gaza breakthrough, Russia-Ukraine, Suez) and a weaker dollar, but lacking a catalyst for a breakout.
Crude recovered after a 2% intraday drop as markets swing between OPEC+ supply dynamics and geopolitical risk—short-term direction remains unclear.
The Bank of Japan announces its rate decision today, with markets expecting a hold at 1.00%, but Governor Ueda’s press conference could signal hawkishness—the yen’s volatility is not over.
Today’s dense data calendar—China July PMI, Eurozone CPI, US Employment Cost Index, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment final—could amplify volatility further.
📅 Today’s Key Data Calendar
| Time | Stars | Event | Previous | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:30 | ⭐⭐⭐ | China July Official Manufacturing PMI | 50.3 | 50.1 |
| TBD | ⭐⭐⭐ | BOJ Policy Rate Decision | 1.00% | 1.00% |
| 14:30 | ⭐⭐⭐ | BOJ Governor Ueda Press Conference | - | - |
| 17:00 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Eurozone July CPI YoY Prelim | 2.80% | 2.90% |
| 20:30 | ⭐⭐⭐ | US Q2 Employment Cost Index QoQ | 0.90% | 0.80% |
| 20:30 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Canada May GDP MoM | 0.50% | 0.20% |
| 21:45 | ⭐⭐⭐ | US July Chicago PMI | 56.7 | 56.0 |
| 22:00 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | US July Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final | 54.4 | 54.0 |
| 14:45 | ⭐⭐⭐ | France July CPI MoM Prelim | -0.30% | 0.30% |
| 15:55 | ⭐⭐⭐ | Germany July Unemployment Rate SA | 6.30% | 6.30% |