π° Morning Briefing (00:00-08:00 CST) | 2026-07-29
Iran launched ballistic missiles at US military bases in the Middle East, sending WTI crude surging 3.6% above $81 overnight. FOMC decision day arrives with swap markets pricing ~33% probability of a 25bp hike; Citadel Securities warns of a "hawkish thunderbolt." SK Hynix Q2 revenue and operating profit both missed expectations, shares fell as much as 9% after hours.
π Market Snapshot
| Asset | Price | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spot Gold (XAUUSD) | $4,021.14 | -0.19% | Range $4,013.91β$4,028.29, under pressure ahead of FOMC |
| WTI Crude (USOIL) | $81.16 | +3.63% | Range $79.04β$82.16, driven by Iran missile strike |
| Nasdaq 100 | Correction territory | -10%* | Down from record highs, leveraged ETF unwinding accelerating |
*Decline from Nasdaq 100 all-time high
π₯ Key Overnight News
Iran Strikes US Bases with Ballistic Missiles, Oil Surges
Iran launched ballistic missiles at US military bases in the Middle East early this morning. All missiles were intercepted, but this marks the first direct Iranian attack on US targets since Trump paused military strikes and pursued diplomatic negotiations. WTI crude surged 3.6% overnight, briefly breaching $82 before settling at $81.16. OPEC+’s plan to pause production increases after September provided additional support for oil prices.
FOMC Decision Day: Markets Brace for “Hawkish Thunderbolt”
The Fed’s July rate decision is due today (2:00 AM Thursday Beijing time), followed by Chair Warsh’s press conference. Swap markets are pricing in roughly a one-third probability of a 25bp rate hike. Citadel Securities warned of a possible surprise hike by Warsh, igniting market anxiety. CBS News quoted EY-Parthenon’s chief economist: “A July rate hike remains highly unlikely, but September could become the first meaningful test.” Current fed funds rate: 3.50%β3.75%.
SK Hynix Q2 Misses Estimates, After-Hours Rollercoaster
SK Hynix Q2 revenue and operating profit both fell short of expectations. Shares plunged as much as 9% after hours before recovering to -2.5%. On the positive side, HBM4 entered mass production in Q2 with expansion planned for H2; HBM4E samples were delivered in H1. The HBM demand thesis remains intact, but valuation pressure is emerging.
Nasdaq 100 Enters Correction
The Nasdaq 100 has fallen 10% from its record high, with the AI bubble facing a serious reckoning. Soaring capex from Google and other hyperscalers with uncertain returns is eroding investor patience. Once-hot leveraged ETFs are accelerating their exit.
US Senate Advances Russia Energy Sanctions
Comprehensive energy sanctions against Russia, championed by the late Senator Graham, passed the first round of voting in the US Senate.
Other Headlines
- Trump and Netanyahu held a 90-minute meeting described as “productive,” emphasizing shared objectives
- Japan earthquake: 5 confirmed dead
- Russian air strike on Taganrog: 1 dead, 1 injured
- American Airlines briefly grounded flights due to a technical issue; operations restored except Charlotte
- Rio Tinto CEO: lithium demand from grid storage batteries is exceeding expectations
π§ Strategic Assessment
Today the market has one theme β the FOMC decision.
This is the first real test of the Warsh era. The June hold was interpreted as dovish, but since then oil has climbed from $75 to $81, Middle East tensions have escalated, and employment data remains robust β the conditions for a hawkish hike are building.
Swap markets pricing a one-third probability of a hike suggests the market is not entirely unprepared. The real risk lies not in the hike itself but in the forward guidance Warsh delivers at the press conference. If he signals a shift from “data dependence” to “action dependence,” September hike expectations will reprice sharply.
Crude oil is today’s other focal point. The Iranian missiles were intercepted, but the symbolic weight is enormous β a direct challenge to Trump’s diplomatic approach. Combined Hormuz Strait shipping risks and Red Sea disruptions, the energy risk premium will persist. OPEC+’s signal to pause September increases gives the bulls additional conviction.
Gold’s modest decline ahead of the FOMC is normal. If Warsh delivers a surprise hike, gold could quickly test the $4,000 round number. However, the Middle East geopolitical premium provides a floor.
The tech sector’s problem is not earnings but valuations. SK Hynix has strong HBM demand yet the stock still fell β the market’s patience with AI capex is wearing thin. Whether the Nasdaq 100’s 10% correction is just the beginning or a buying opportunity depends on the rate path the FOMC reveals tonight.
π Today’s Key Data Calendar (Beijing Time)
| Time | Importance | Event | Prior | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:00 | ββ | MBA Mortgage Applications | β | β |
| 21:00 | ββ | S&P/CS Home Price Index (May) | 1.1% | 1.6% |
| 22:00 | βββ | CB Consumer Confidence (Jul) | 91.2 | 90.8 |
| 22:00 | ββ | Richmond Fed Manufacturing (Jul) | 4 | 5 |
| 22:30 | βββ | EIA Crude Oil Inventories | +2.01M bbl | β |
| 02:00 (Thu) | βββ | FOMC Rate Decision | 3.50-3.75% | Hold |
| 02:30 (Thu) | βββ | FOMC Press Conference (Warsh) | β | β |
Today’s centerpiece: FOMC decision + Warsh press conference. Consumer confidence and EIA inventories provide intraday volatility.