📊 Market Snapshot

  • Spot Gold (XAUUSD): 4053.38, +0.11% (Friday close)
  • WTI Crude (USOIL): 90.89, -2.05% (Friday close)
  • Markets closed for the weekend; prices reflect Friday’s close

🔥 Key News This Hour

Major Turning Point in US-Iran: Trump Halts Airstrikes, Iran Suspends Retaliation

  • Trump ordered a pause on airstrikes against Iran, ending 13 consecutive days of daily strikes
  • Iran confirmed it has stopped retaliatory attacks after US forces did not strike for two consecutive nights
  • Both US and Iran have responded to proposals from Pakistan and Qatar to resume negotiations
  • Iran’s President called US strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure “clear war crimes”
  • Experts: the military standoff may see prolonged back-and-forth; peace process remains fragile

Other Geopolitical Developments

  • Ukraine struck an Iranian merchant vessel in the Caspian Sea; analysts say the aim is to disrupt Iran’s military support for Russia and divert Iranian attention
  • Netanyahu departs for Washington tomorrow to meet with Trump; cabinet discusses new Gaza proposal
  • Kuwait condemns Houthi repeated attacks on Red Sea commercial shipping

Markets & Corporates

  • Analysts warn: oil approaching $100 threshold, global central bank rate hike alarms ringing again
  • SHEIN passes HKEX listing hearing, Q1 revenue $9.052 billion
  • Want Want China: April–June revenue expected to decline ~6%
  • Shanxi Fenjiu: cash dividend of 6.56 yuan/share, record date July 30

🧭 Strategic Assessment

The US-Iran situation has produced the clearest de-escalation signal since this round of conflict began.

Trump’s halt of airstrikes and Iran’s suspension of retaliation occurred almost simultaneously, with both sides signalling willingness to negotiate through third-party channels — near-term military conflict risk has dropped significantly.

However, oil remains above $90, and the dual shipping pressure on the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved — supply-side risk premiums have not yet fully dissipated.

Next week’s Super Central Bank Week (Fed, BOE, BOJ) combined with core PCE data means that if oil stays elevated, hawkish central bank stances may weigh on risk assets.

Gold holds support above $4,000; easing geopolitical tensions may create near-term pressure, but central bank buying and rate-cut expectations remain medium-to-long-term support.

⏰ Upcoming Key Data

  • Next week: FOMC rate decision (July 30), US Q2 GDP, Core PCE Price Index
  • July 28: Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon earnings