πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • Spot Gold XAUUSD: 4053.38 (-0.11%), intraday range 4022-4082
  • WTI Crude USOIL: 90.89 (-2.05%), intraday range 88.11-93.22
  • Gold holds above the 4000 level, crude retreats sharply from above 93, reflecting market pricing of US-Iran de-escalation expectations

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

  1. Trump Halts Airstrikes on Iran β€” Ends 13 consecutive days of daily strikes, warns “if we don’t achieve 100% of our goals, we restart the war”
  2. Iran Suspends Retaliation in Sync β€” With US not striking for two consecutive nights, Iran has paused its retaliatory attacks
  3. US and Iran Respond to Peace Proposals β€” Both sides have replied to Pakistan and Qatar’s proposals to resume negotiations
  4. Israel to Discuss New Gaza Proposal β€” Security cabinet to review new plan drafted by the Peace Committee (BoP)
  5. Oil Retreats to $90 Level β€” WTI drops over 2%, but analysts warn oil could approach $100 if conflict persists

🧭 Situation Assessment

Both the US and Iran hit pause simultaneously β€” the clearest de-escalation signal since this round of conflict began.

But Trump’s “restart the war if we don’t achieve 100%” warning means the peace window could be extremely fragile.

Oil’s drop from $93 to $90.89 is a direct pricing-in of de-escalation expectations, but JPMorgan warns each additional month of conflict could add $7-8 to oil prices.

Gold hovers slightly above $4000, with safe-haven premium not yet fully unwound, awaiting direction from this week’s super central bank week.

⏰ Upcoming Key Events

Super central bank week ahead: Fed, BOE, and BOJ rate decisions in succession, with US Core PCE and Eurozone CPI testing inflation resilience. Close attention needed on central bank language regarding oil-driven inflation and the inflation outlook.