πŸ“Š Market Snapshot

  • Spot Gold: $4,053.38 (+0.11%), range $4,022–$4,082
  • WTI Crude: $90.89 (-2.05%), range $88.11–$93.22
  • Note: Weekend closure; prices reflect Friday’s close

πŸ”₯ Key News This Hour

  1. Houthi Forces Strike Saudi Aramco Facilities β€” Houthi militants attacked two Aramco oil facilities in Jizan and Yanbu, Saudi Arabia. Saudi Aramco shares fell as much as 1.0% in early Riyadh trading Sunday to 26.56 riyals. Kuwait condemned the repeated Houthi attacks on Red Sea commercial shipping, including the recent strike on Saudi-operated vessel NCC MASA. Yemen’s Prime Minister stated the Houthis are executing Iran’s directives.

  2. Iran’s IRGC Warns Israel of “Severe Consequences” β€” IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi warned in the early hours of July 26 that if Israel reignites war, Iran will “make it suffer severe consequences,” emphasizing that any support for Israel in a US-Iran conflict would invite retaliation.

  3. Oil Nears $100, Central Banks on Alert β€” Analysts note crude oil approaching $100/barrel, with the Fed, BOE, and BOJ likely to show varying degrees of vigilance toward energy-driven inflation. This comes during a super central bank week with back-to-back policy decisions.

  4. CITIC Securities: Secondary Oil Shock Won’t Derail August Recovery β€” The research note argues this Middle East oil shock is fundamentally different from the first round, with entirely different crowded-trade structures, meaning markets won’t simply replay Q2 dynamics.

  5. PLA Southern Theater Command on Philippines Joint Patrol β€” The PLA conducted routine naval and air patrols in the South China Sea on July 26, issuing a statement regarding the Philippines’ so-called “joint cruise” with external powers.

  6. Japan PM Takaichi Cabinet Approval Falls to 53.7% β€” The lowest level since the cabinet was formed.

🧭 Strategic Assessment

The Middle East situation escalated further over the weekend, with Houthi forces directly striking core Saudi Aramco facilities and Red Sea shipping security continuing to deteriorate.

Crude oil markets face a gap-up risk at next week’s open; the extent of damage to Aramco facilities is the key variable.

Super central bank week combined with core PCE data and Big Tech earnings will significantly amplify market volatility.

If oil stabilizes above $100, it will fundamentally alter the policy trajectory for global central banks in H2.

Gold holds support above $4,000, with the tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and USD strength intensifying.

⏰ Upcoming Key Events

  • This week: FOMC rate decision (Thursday early morning Asia)
  • This week: BOE and BOJ rate decisions
  • This week: US June Core PCE Price Index
  • This week: Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon earnings