π° Morning Briefing (00:00-08:00) | 2026-07-26
Trump orders halt to airstrikes on Iran, breaking 13 consecutive days of daily strikes; Omani delegation arrives in Tehran for negotiations, potential weekend deal in sight. WTI crude plunges 2% to $90.89. Ukraine strikes Iranian cargo ship in Caspian Sea, killing 1. Typhoon Hongxia (Cat 4) makes landfall in Guangdong. Russian ballistic missiles strike Kyiv. Iraqi Kirkuk oil field explosions.
π Market Snapshot
Friday (7/25) closing prices. Markets closed over the weekend.
| Instrument | Close | Change | Daily Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spot Gold XAUUSD | 4053.38 | +0.11% | 4022 β 4082 |
| WTI Crude USOIL | 90.89 | -2.05% | 88.11 β 93.22 |
| S&P 500 SPX | 7411.96 | +0.05% | 7396 β 7461 |
| Dow Jones DJI | 51946.51 | +0.45% | 51682 β 52118 |
Gold: Narrow range on Friday with a $60 intraday swing but flat close. 4050 remains a battleground. Geopolitical risk premium has been fully priced in after two weeks of conflict, with upward momentum fading.
Crude Oil: Plunged 2% overnight with an intraday range exceeding 5%. Trump’s halt on Iran airstrikes and progress in Omani-mediated negotiations directly deflated the war premium. However, the Iraqi Kirkuk oil field explosions and ongoing US naval blockade mean supply-side risks are not fully resolved.
US Equities: S&P 500 edged up 0.05%, Dow added 0.45%. Markets digested the potential cooling of US-Iran tensions, but tech earnings season confidence remains weak (the “Magnificent Seven” lost $800B in a single session earlier this week).
π₯ Key Overnight News
β Top Story: Trump Halts Airstrikes on Iran
On July 25 local time, Trump ordered US forces not to launch new airstrikes against Iran, ending a 13-day streak of daily strikes. Trump had previously approved military strike packages daily, but declined to authorize the new operational plan on the 25th. It remains unclear whether this is a one-day pause or a sustained halt.
Omani Mediation Breakthrough: Hours before Trump’s order, an Omani delegation arrived in Tehran to negotiate new arrangements for Strait of Hormuz passage. Two regional sources reported progress, with a potential Omani-Iranian deal possible by the weekend, after which Trump will decide whether to accept.
But Trump Also Warned: If he doesn’t get “100% of what we want” from Iran, he will “absolutely consider resuming full-scale war.”
Iran’s Response: IRGC spokesman stated the new round of conflict was triggered by US violation of the agreement (US unilaterally declared an alternative passage channel). The “Victory 2” operation aims to force US compliance. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister expressed commitment to fair negotiations and safe passage, but emphasized “the Strait will never return to its pre-war state.”
Other Major News
Ukraine Strikes Iranian Ship in Caspian Sea: Ukrainian forces attacked an Iranian cargo vessel in the Caspian Sea, killing 1 and injuring 1. Iran’s Foreign Ministry strongly condemned the attack, summoned Ukraine’s chargΓ© d’affaires, and warned “the Ukrainian regime and its backers will bear the consequences.” Zelensky claimed the strike targeted a Russian warship and vessels transporting Iran-linked military supplies.
Russian Missile Attack on Kyiv: Ukraine’s Air Force reported Russian ballistic missile strikes on Kyiv. Mayor Klitschko said falling debris caused fires in at least three districts.
Iraqi Oil Field Explosions: Multiple violent explosions and widespread fires reported at the Jambur oil field in Kirkuk Province, Iraq. Cause under investigation.
US Naval Blockade Continues: CENTCOM confirmed that as of July 25, 12 merchant vessels have been forced to change course, 2 non-compliant vessels had their navigation capability disabled, and 2 vessels were boarded for inspection.
Typhoon Hongxia Lands in Guangdong: Category 4 typhoon made landfall at 03:50 in Huidong, Huizhou, with maximum sustained winds of 45 m/s (14 on the Beaufort scale). Shenzhen issued red typhoon warning; Hong Kong hoisted Signal No. 9.
Berlin Car-Ramming Incident: A vehicle rammed into pedestrians in Berlin on the evening of the 25th, injuring multiple people. Police are searching for the suspect.
Israel-Palestine: A drone crashed near the residence of Israel’s National Security Minister (camera only, no casualties). Gaza gunfire killed 7 Palestinians and injured 20. West Bank settlers blocked tunnel roads.
Iran Oil Revenue: Oil Minister revealed $11.5B in oil sales during wartime, $6.5B during ceasefire β over 60% of the annual budget target already met despite war and sanctions.
π§ Strategic Assessment
The clearest de-escalation signal in two weeks: Trump’s voluntary halt on airstrikes combined with Omani mediation progress is the strongest near-term bearish driver for oil prices.
But “pause” does not mean “end.” Trump’s “100% conditions” and whether the Omani deal materializes remain the key variables β weekend negotiation outcomes will determine Monday’s crude oil gap direction.
Iran’s stance remains hardline, insisting the Strait of Hormuz “will never return to its pre-war state.” Even if a deal is reached, permanent changes to passage rules and inspection mechanisms could structurally alter crude transportation costs.
Ukraine’s attack on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian is a new wildcard. Escalation in the Caspian direction could further intertwine the Russia-Ukraine war with the Middle East, adding geopolitical complexity.
Gold is gridlocked near 4050. If a weekend deal materializes, fading geopolitical premium could push prices toward 4000 or even 3950. If negotiations collapse, expect a retest of 4080-4100 resistance.
US equities face a triple headwind: AI capex ROI skepticism in tech, Middle East geopolitical uncertainty, and oil price volatility’s impact on inflation expectations.
Typhoon Hongxia may cause brief disruption in the Pearl River Delta on Monday morning, but overall impact on A-shares and Hong Kong markets should be limited. Watch for post-disaster assessments.
π Today’s Key Data Calendar
Sunday β no major economic data releases scheduled.
Key events this week (7/27-7/31):
- Monday: Germany July IFO Business Climate Index
- Wednesday: US June Durable Goods Orders, FOMC July Rate Decision
- Thursday: US Q2 GDP (Advance)
- Friday: US June Core PCE Price Index
(Times subject to Jin10 economic calendar)