π° Morning Briefing (00:00-08:00) | 2026-07-25
Saudi coalition airstrikes hit Houthi military targets in Hodeidah, Yemen as Red Sea tensions escalate sharply; a Saudi commercial vessel was attacked; Trump convenes senior advisors to decide on escalating military action against Iran; WTI crude plunges 3.12% to $89.31; Philadelphia Semiconductor Index crashes 4.25%.
π Market Snapshot
| Instrument | Close | Change | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,412.02 | +3.72 | +0.05% |
| Dow Jones | 51,947.25 | +235.60 | +0.46% |
| Nasdaq | 24,975.82 | -161.87 | -0.64% |
| Philly Semi | β | β | -4.25% |
| Gold (XAU) | $4,053.38 | +$4.29 | +0.11% |
| WTI Crude | $89.31 | -$2.88 | -3.12% |
| Brent Crude | $96.78 | -$3.91 | -3.88% |
| DXY | 101.468 | +0.02 | +0.02% |
| USD/JPY | 163.84 | +0.04 | +0.02% |
| HSI Futures (o/n) | 25,020 | +55 | +0.22% |
| SHFE Gold | Β₯885/g | +0.18% | β |
| SHFE Silver | Β₯14,323/kg | +1.39% | β |
US equities closed mixed. The Dow eked out modest gains while the Nasdaq was dragged down by semiconductors. The S&P 500 barely held onto green, retreating from an intraday high of 7,460. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index crashed 4.25%, the biggest drag on the session.
Fear & Greed Index at 39.4 (Fear): Market momentum 29.2 (Fear), Stock breadth 14.0 (Extreme Fear), Put/Call ratio 30.0 (Fear), Safe haven demand 63.4 (Greed).
π₯ Key Overnight Developments
π’οΈ Red Sea Situation Escalates Sharply
The Saudi-led coalition conducted airstrikes on Houthi military targets in Hodeidah, Yemen, calling it a “proportionate military response.” A Saudi commercial vessel, NCC MASA, was attacked in the Red Sea sustaining minor damage. Iran’s Tasnim News reported that the US Fifth Fleet base in Bahrain was targeted by missiles and drones. Strait of Hormuz transit volume dropped 60% on July 24, while Bab el-Mandeb traffic partially recovered. Shipping is entering a phase of “cautious but selective resumption.”
βοΈ Trump Convenes Advisors on Iran Military Escalation
Trump met with senior advisors and cabinet officials Friday to decide whether to intensify military strikes on Iran. Trump stated he is “ready for higher-level military action against Iran” while also noting “Iran is becoming more serious in negotiations.” The NYT reported US intelligence assesses Iran’s new leadership has greater nuclear ambitions. The fragile ceasefire and memorandum of understanding have both collapsed.
π Oil Plunges Despite Tensions: WTI -3.12%
Despite escalating Middle East tensions, crude oil fell sharply Friday. WTI settled at $89.31, Brent at $96.78. Barclays warned of $2-$10/bbl upside risk depending on Hormuz Strait duration. JPMorgan previously calculated Brent would hold at $94 under a 1-month disruption and spike to $114 under a 3-month scenario. CFTC data shows WTI net longs increased by 8,289 contracts to 78,348.
π» Semiconductor Sector Bloodbath
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -4.25%, Intel -7.89%, Micron -6.99%, SanDisk -10.79%, SK Hynix -8.81%. Apple bucked the trend +3%, IBM +3.64%. Waymo is exploring ending its partnership with Uber. The Paramount-Warner Bros $111B merger has been paused by court order.
π·πΊ Zelensky Warns: Russia May Launch Large-Scale Strikes Within 48 Hours
Ukrainian President Zelensky, citing Western intelligence, warned that Russia is highly likely to launch a new wave of large-scale airstrikes as early as tonight or within 48 hours. Russia previously struck three major Ukrainian ports.
π° Other Notable Developments
- Trump’s global tariffs face new legal challenge: two small businesses sued over unlawful use of Section 301
- Brazil estimates 37.5% composite tariff will impact $12.4B in exports
- Trump: will impose high tariffs on Canada over wildfire smoke, on Mexican lettuce
- Intel reported strong earnings, raised Q3 guidance
- Musk: Grok4.6 in 2 weeks, all X code to go open source
- CFTC: gold net longs +4,438 to 123,586; yen net shorts at record 152,125
- CME FedWatch: 62.1% probability of holding rates in July
π§ Strategic Assessment
The Middle East is entering a dangerous new phase with both the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz under simultaneous stress.
Yet oil’s counterintuitive selloff Friday suggests markets are pricing in “contained conflict” β the Saudi strikes deliberately avoided port facilities, and Trump is signaling openness to negotiations.
The semiconductor rout deserves close attention. The across-the-board collapse in memory chip stocks hints at a market reassessment of the AI hardware cycle thesis.
The core tension in markets right now is not direction but the tug-of-war between geopolitical risk premiums and tech valuation corrections.
The VIX remains in neutral territory, but the Fear & Greed Index at 39.4 indicates broadly cautious sentiment.
Next week’s FOMC decision is the single largest certainty event β markets are likely to remain rangebound until then.
Gold stabilizing near $4,050 with safe-haven demand in greed territory suggests capital is still seeking safety.
π Today’s Economic Calendar
Saturday β no major economic data releases scheduled.
Key Events Next Week:
- Wed 7/29: FOMC Interest Rate Decision
- Thu 7/30: US June Core PCE Price Index
- Fri 7/31: China July Official Manufacturing PMI