π° Hourly Briefing | 2026-07-24 22:00 CST
US July PMI data beat across the board, composite PMI at 53.6 vs 51.8 expected; WTI crude plunged 2.63% to $90.35 as market digests Iran conflict premium; US stocks open mixed with extreme dispersion in earnings-season movers.
π Market Snapshot
| Asset | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Spot Gold (XAUUSD) | 4068.41 | +0.48% |
| WTI Crude (USOIL) | 90.35 | -2.63% |
| Dow Jones | 51813.30 | +0.20% |
| S&P 500 | 7409.76 | +0.02% |
| Nasdaq | - | -0.12% |
US wheat futures plunged 4.00% intraday to 668.25 cents/bushel.
π₯ Key News This Hour
US July PMI Beats Across the Board S&P Global July flash composite PMI came in at 53.6 (vs 51.8 expected, 51.9 prior), services PMI at 53.6 (vs 51.5 expected, 51.2 prior), manufacturing PMI at 53.8 (vs 54.3 expected, 53.9 prior). The strong services rebound was the primary driver, pushing the composite to a multi-month high.
WTI Crude Tumbles 2.6% as Iran Risk Premium Fades WTI dropped $2.44 to $90.35, hitting an intraday low of $89.16. Despite JPMorgan warning that each additional month of Iran conflict could add $7β8 to oil prices, markets chose to shed some geopolitical premium today, showing signs of near-term digestion of the US-Iran confrontation narrative.
Earnings Season Delivers Extreme Stock Dispersion Livewire Group (LVWR) surged 60% on Q2 sales far exceeding last year; Schlumberger (SLB) rose 6.6% as North American revenue surged 36%, offsetting Middle East headwinds; American Express (AXP) fell over 5% on mixed Q2 with a revenue miss but raised full-year guidance; Maxlinear (MXL) plunged over 9% on weak Q2 results and outlook.
Morgan Stanley: Investors Enthusiastic About Intel’s Spending Plans Intel raised its full-year total capex guidance from ~$15B to $20B, with next year expected to be significantly higher. Morgan Stanley analysts project further capex increases into FY2027.
US Tech Firms Issue Open Letter on Open-Weight AI Models A coalition of tech companies stated that open-weight models are critical to a healthy AI ecosystem, arguing that relying solely on closed AI models is unsafe. The US faces a strategic choice on open-weight AI.
BofA Strategist Warns: Markets Are Ignoring Risk BofA analysis notes that current market pricing reflects elevated optimism. With tech giant earnings highlighting uncertainty around AI investment returns and external cost pressures, this high degree of optimism could face a correction.
π§ Market Assessment
PMI data beat across the board, with services rebounding particularly strongly β this shows US economic resilience far better than market pricing had anticipated, giving the soft-landing narrative fresh data support.
But the WTI plunge alongside strong PMIs creates an interesting tension β if the economy is truly better than expected, oil shouldn’t be falling. This suggests markets are more focused on near-term digestion of the Iran risk premium rather than the demand side.
Earnings season dispersion is extreme β LVWR +60% vs MXL -9%. This is a classic stock-picker’s market: calm at the index level, violent beneath the surface.
Intel’s capex hike to $20B, combined with the political maneuvering around open-weight AI models, signals a new narrative taking shape in the semiconductor space.
BofA’s warning deserves attention β market optimism is pricing in a perfect scenario. Any signal of AI investment returns falling short could trigger a correction.
β° Upcoming Key Data
- US June New Home Sales (imminent release)
- Next week (7/27): FOMC rate decision (7/30), US Q2 GDP advance, Core PCE Price Index